Detroit Lions Weblog

The Greatest Day of the Year!

Pazckis (Poonch-keys) have arrived at our local convenience store chain, Quality Dairy. This is my favorite day of the year. Their is no greater gluttony than those delightful little pastries!

I have seen two very early predictions for the Lions selection with the 10th pick of the 2005 draft. Mel Kiper has mentioned that he thinks the Lions will draft Virginia Tight End, Heath Miller. Pro Football Weekly Newspaper, has projected that the Lions will select Quarterback Aaron Rodgers from the University of California. Like I said, these are quite early. The Lions have yet to decide which of their remaining free agents they will re-sign, which free agents they will pursue on the open market, or attended the draft combine. I guess I find it interesting that with all of the draft emphasis in past years on offense, that many respected analysts feel that the Lions will still pursue offensive upgrades.

More Ted Tollner

It looks like Ted Tollner will assume the offensive play-calling responsibilities that Steve Mariucci and Greg Olson each had last season. Olson will relay the plays to the Quarterback after he receives them from Tollner. Tollner has also been brought in to revamp about 25% of their playbook. So Mariucci, who was pressured by Millen to make the offense more aggressive, plans to keep 75% of his playbook. I understand that Mariucci has quite a lot of faith in the system he has implemented, but this doesn’t appear, at least on the surface to be a hiring that will bring about a drastic change in their offensive philosophy. It makes sense that Mariucci would want to hire a coach who he is comfortable with, yet that he has enough respect for that he can accept the criticisms/conflicts that may arise from differences in philosophy.

That being said, you can bet that Tollner will be instrumental in calling plays in which Joey Harrington will be able to throw downfield more frequently than he has in the past. Most crucial, Mariucci has stated that they will utilize concepts that Tollner has learned from his experience in other offensive systems. This is where the innovation may emerge.

No matter the changes brought about by the hiring of Tollner, their are some crucial things that will have to happen for the Lions to be more successful on offense next year:
-Charles Rogers will have to remain relatively injury free and prove to be as effective as what we all envision he can be.
-The Lions receivers will have to concentrate better in receiving passes. A third season of high totals of dropped passes would be very damaging
-3rd Down conversions. They have to convert more third downs. Especially, Third Downs with long distances to go. Hopefully, Tollner will eliminate the 4-yard passes when the Lions need seven yards for a first down, like we witnessed ad infinitum this year.
-RED ZONE, the Lions need to score more TD’s in the Red Zone, as much as we all respect Jason Hanson, he needs less 20-30 FG’s and more 35-40 yard FG’s.
-Will an effective third receiver emerge? Especially one with good hands, who is reliable in pressure situations?

One concern of mine, is what will Tollner’s philosophy be for the running attack? With the emergence of Kevin Jones, the Lions have quite a weapon. If Tollner is of similar philosophy to Mike Martz or Andy Reid, Jones may be poorly utilized. Ultimately, the Lions will need to be more effective in their ground attack during the second half of games. Good teams, gain more rushing yards in the second half, controlling the clock and maintaining a lead. Too often, in close games, the Lions seemed to either be ineffective in executing their ground game or just drift away from utilizing the run, in my opinion.

Ted Tollner, New Lions Offensive Coordinator

Nothing much to report here. Tollner is an football-lifer who is rapidly approaching 65 years old. He has been a coach with Mariucci in the past and has quite an impressive resume. That being said, his offense in San Francisco last season was putrid, which is awfully familiar to Lion’s fans, who also were party to an impotent offense. In San Francisco, their offense’s ineffectiveness may have been as attributable to poor personnel as it was to any sort of problem’s in their offensive scheme. I will admit, I was hoping that Mariucci would find a coach that he wasn’t so closely linked with to help revamp the offense.

Why Randy Moss is My Favorite Player-or “Hate Everything About Football, Except Football”

First Off, their is no question that Randy Moss is one grade-A jackass! He is a chronic malcontent, a locker room cancer, and behaves in a borderline sociopathic manner. That being said, recent events have lead to my re-evaluation of him as a player.

The “Moon Dance”, in Green Bay, was the last straw for me. The uproar of many of sports cognoscenti in response to this event has changed my perceptions of Moss and these end-zone celebration dances. It may be my WWE-saturated world view, but I don’t see what was so terrible about Moss taunting the Packer fans. I do realize that much of the reaction is a result of his targeting the “paying customers”, as opposed to his opponents. Yet, I don’t think this incident should have lead to the sports establishment’s talking heads to collectively commence to wailing like a pack of nellies. If I hear again that the reason that this dance was so deplorable was that this was terrible behavior by a role model to children, I think I’ll vomit. I can remember many a backyard football game in my youth that my counterparts and I behaved in a degenerate manner that was TEN times worse than Moss’s dance. Maybe I’m a cretin, but I am sure many of you would be able to express the same or similar sentiments. Heck, in video games, you can probably do worse while celebrating a TD.

The point of this entry is not to justify Moss’s behavior. In our culture we need bad guys. Somebody has to be the scapegoat or heel. It is part of our collective consciousness. Moss may be an all-too-willing participant in this role, but that shouldn’t diminish his greatness. Football is not a discrete sport. Football is full of transgressive rituals and is precisely ruthless, yet we expect NFL players to be model citizens? It is not a sport for “nice guys”, a professional football player is a bad MF’er!

Many of the players come from at-risk social backgrounds. It is incongruous, to expect a white-controlled media, or white-owned sports teams, who are coached and managed mostly by whites, to truly understand the nature of these behaviors. Not to turn this into an issue of race, but undeniably there exists a chasm that separates the players from everyone else, most likely on the basis of class. A lot of the reaction to the “moon dance” may actually be a result of an over-compensation for the inability to control players at the skill positions, players who are of a different background and are more capable of playing the position (Position Envy?), and that is a source of frustration to the observers. Without getting too mired in pyscho-babble, I want to express that their is more than meets the eye here. I don’t think for one minute if Brett Favre had done the same dance in the Metrodome, that the reaction would have been as sanctimonious and boisterous.

A wise friend of mine coined the maxim, “Hate Everything about Football, except Football”. This may be the best tool for judging Moss. All of his antics aside, he is one of the 5 most dynamic players to have played in the last 10 years. Heck, he may be among the 10 most athletically-gifted players to ever play the game. On the basis of that alone, he deserves our respect. If there is one judgement I can make in regards to Moss, it is that he had better hope his work ethic, commitment and maturity will be enough someday to compensate for the loss of that incredible athletic ability. As he ages, if he doesn’t continue to grow as a player, his failure as a player may be among the most spectacular ever witnessed. The behaviors that would result maybe would be even more self-destructive and sociopathic.

The rumor is that the Vikings would like to trade Moss. I say bully, that would be the best thing to ever happen to the Lions. I would rest easily if I never again saw a group of Lion defensive backs chasing Moss from behind as he streaks towards the end zone, we have seen that enough! Many suitors will line up for Moss’s services and hopefully he will play someplace like Baltimore, Oakland, or Atlanta where the chances are the Lions will only play him once a year. I hope the Vikings enjoy their 5 win seasons, too.

Moss’s Career Stats:
G—REC—YDS—Y/G—AVG—TD—TD/REC
109-574—9142—83.9-15.9—-90—15.6%

Moss versus Lions:
REC—YDS—Y/G—AVG—TD—TD/REC
72—–1182—90.9-16.4—9—–12.5%

Lions Defense-some final stats

10. Defensive Efficiency
Def Plays—League Avg Plays—+/-
1071——–999—————– +72 plays

Rush Avg—League Rush Avg—-+/-
3.79———4.13—————/ -.34 yds/rush

Pass Avg—League Pass Avg—+/-
6.13——–6.13—————- 0 Yards/Pass

Def Avg—-League Def Avg—–+/-
5.04——–5.23——————/ -.19 yds/opp. Offensive play

Passing Defense
Att—CMP—PCT—YDS—YDS/G—YPA—PER—TD/INT—TD%—INT%—Rate
535–328—-61.3–3514–219.6—–6.13–5.26—29/14—-5.42—-2.62—-87.7

17. Red Zone
Opp Pos—Tot Td—Tot FG—Scor%—TD%
535——–24——–13——-.822——.533

More Harrington

This is where Harrington’s projected stats and real stats would place him in Lion history in several categories:

Most Passing Yards Season
1.Mitchell 4,338
2. Mitchell 3,484
3. Harrington (proj.) 3,292
4.Danielson 3,223
5. Harrington (proj.) 3,184
6. Danielson 3,076
7.Harrington(real) 3,047
8. Hipple 2,952
9. Mitchell 2,917
10. Harrington (2003) 2,880

TD Passes-Season
1. Mitchell 32
2. Layne 26
3. Morrall 24
4. Harrington (proj.) 22
5. Layne
Mitchell
Harrington all 19
8. Plum
Landry
Danielson all 18
Pass Completions-Season
1. Mitchell 346
2. Harrington (2003) 309
3. Harrington (proj.) 296
4. Harrington (real) 274
5. Mitchell 253
6. Danielson 252
7. Danielson 244
8. Long 232
9. Hipple 223
10. Batch 221

Highest Pass Completion %- Season
1. Hipple 62.95
2. Peete 62.30
3. Krieg 61.79
4. Danielson 61.46
5. Frerotte 60.76
6.Harrington (proj) 60.53
7. Mitchell 59.35
8. Danielson 58.51
9. Batch 58.10
10. Mitchell 57.89

Highest Passer Rating-Season
1. Krieg 101.7
2. Mitchell 92.3
3. Landry 89.6
4. Morrall 86.2
5. Harington (proj) 84.8
6. Harrington (proj) 84.2
7. Batch 84.1
8. Frerotte 83.6
9. Batch 83.5
10. Danielson 83.1

With the Lion’s patchy QB history, it is obvious that it isn’t saying much to show Harrington’s projected stats absent 56 % of the dropped passes, yet it puts his season and career into a broader perspective. Without the emergence of Charles Rogers, a capable and reliable third-down receiver and more involved Tight Ends, his career will continue to underwhelm.

Playoff Reaction

Boy, was I wrong. Not only were these game’s uncaptivating, they weren’t too competitive. The Patriots execute big plays in crucial situations and make few errors. It will take an absolutely masterful performance from Donovan McNabb and his receivers for the Super Bowl game to even remain close. Mike Vick, who the league marketing department desperately wants to attain the glory that corresponds to all of his glitz, seems like he is still at least a couple of years off. His inability to scramble and hurt the Eagles defense rendered him one-dimensional, and that is being nice. Yesterday, he looked no better than Mike McMahon against a good, but not great Eagle Defense.

What Coulda Been

I have been doing a lot of thinking about Joey Harrington’s 2004 season. It was a season rife with controversy, amidst minimal improvements in the quality of his play. I think it will be hard for Harrington to ever escape the perceptions of him as a silver spoon college kid with no leadership ability, toughness or the ability to ever meet his pre-NFL expectations. Jeepers, he even plays piano (Though we forget that Otto Graham was an excellent musician). With all the hue and cry over Harrington’s performance, I kept going back to those 40 dropped passes and the 5 dropped TD passes and wondering what might have been.

Bear in mind these were the projections for his performance in the pre-season, by Brassey’s Pro Football Forecast:

ATT—CMP—PCT—YDS–TDS–INT–Rate
501—289—-57.7–3099–22—-14—-78.9

As it would turn out, this is remarkably close to what his stats were:

ATT—CMP—PCT—YDS—YDS/G—YPA—PER–TD/INT–TD%–INt%–Rate
489—274—-56.0—3047—190.4—6.23–5.00–19/12—3.89—2.5—-77.5
(PER is Pass Eff. Rating or Adjusted Yards per Attempt. For an explanation, see Allen Barra’s “Big Play”. In the chapter Unitas vs. Starr, there is an excellent explanation. TD% and INT% are based on attempts)

When you think about those 40 dropped passes, 5 of which were TD’s, you have to wonder what might have been. Without speculating why each was dropped and their actual effect. I considered what the effect on Harrington’s totals would be had the receivers caught just 56% of thpose passes, which is a moderate total but it is commensurate with his completion percentage. Obviously, his completion percentage would increase as would many of his other statistics.

ATT—CMP–PCT—TD/INT–TD%–INT%
489—296—60.1—22/12—-4.5—2.5

So figuring that the Lions stone-handed receivers caught 56% of their 40 drops, they would have caught 22 passes, 3 for TD’s. Harrington’s stats are much better without factoring in the other gains. I used two parameters to figure a high and low watermark for how much Harrington’s stats may have improved. Figuring that each of his completions were for the 6.23 yds/att, I determined that these would his new totals(low watermark):

ATT—CMP–PCT—YDS—YDS/G–YPA—PER—TD/INT–TD%–INT%–Rate
489—296—60.5–3184—199.0—6.51–5.28—22/12—4.5—-2.5—–84.2

For the high watermark, I used his 11.12 yards/completion.

ATT–CMP–PCT—YDS–YDS/G—YPA—PER—TD/INT–TD%–INT%—Rate
489–296—60.5—3292–205.8–6.73—-5.51—22/12–4.54–2.5——84.8

This would have significantly changed the perception of his season. Rather than being ranked in the bottom tier of QB’s he would have had a season comparable to those of Jake Plummer, David Carr, Kurt Warner and Matt Hasselbeck. In my next entry, I will explain where these stats would place him in the pantheon of admittedly disappointing Lion QB’s. The one question I am yet able to answer is whether or not the dropped passes the last two seasons are a result of Harrington’s poor accuracy or a lack of concentration, effort or ability on the part of the Lion’s receivers!

(Note:I am not a stats guru, this has been a “backyard mechanic” level enterprise, but I find them useful in beginning to understand the effects of those dropped passes. It may have actually lead to two or three more victories and a playoff appearance, judging by the looks of these projections.)

Playoffs

This promises to be one of the more exciting weekend’s of football in along time. Both games will probably be more competitive and thrilling than the Super Bowl.

New England at Pittsburgh

Both teams are quite similar in the manner by which they dismantle their opponents. In this case, I believe that Blitzburgh is operating within a smaller margin for error. If New England can get an early lead or slow down the BUS/Duce Express, they will place the game into Roethlisberger’s hands. As dangerous as their receivers are, and as dinged up as the Pats secondary is, it is just not reasonable to believe that the rookie QB will be able to defeat a Belichick/Crennel designed defense while it’s executing at a high level. New England’s offense doesn’t titillate, but they will be able to do just well enough to continue their march into the Super Bowl. Not even all of the zombies in suburban Monroeville can stem that tide.

New England 20 Pittsburgh 10

The Falcons and Eagles is really a coin flip game, in my eyes. Both boast good defenses, and neither has highlight reel type of offenses, except for the spectacular athletic ability of each respective QB. That being said, if the Falcons can control the game with the rush and not turn the ball over, they should win. I honestly believe that with a good running game and the 3 or 4 spectacular plays that Vick will inevitably have, the Falcons an underdog, can slap Philly in the face at home. If Andy Reid coaches like he has the last three championship game appearances, it may not even be close.

Durty Burds 24 Eagles 21

Happy Birthday, Joe Schmidt

Happy Birthday to Lions Hall of Fame Linebacker, Joe Schmidt. Hopefully, he has the opportunity for many more.

I just wanted to take the opportunity to thank anybody who has viewed my entries throughout the course of the season. I plan to continue entries throughout the offseason and hope you will still find them worth your time and possibly, enjoyable.

As one of the longer running soap opera’s in football, the Detroit Lions will continue their part by providing a lot of fodder for discussion. Like passing a car wreck, it is impossible to avert one’s eyes from the perpetual horror!