Detroit Lions Weblog

What Coulda Been

I have been doing a lot of thinking about Joey Harrington’s 2004 season. It was a season rife with controversy, amidst minimal improvements in the quality of his play. I think it will be hard for Harrington to ever escape the perceptions of him as a silver spoon college kid with no leadership ability, toughness or the ability to ever meet his pre-NFL expectations. Jeepers, he even plays piano (Though we forget that Otto Graham was an excellent musician). With all the hue and cry over Harrington’s performance, I kept going back to those 40 dropped passes and the 5 dropped TD passes and wondering what might have been.

Bear in mind these were the projections for his performance in the pre-season, by Brassey’s Pro Football Forecast:

ATT—CMP—PCT—YDS–TDS–INT–Rate
501—289—-57.7–3099–22—-14—-78.9

As it would turn out, this is remarkably close to what his stats were:

ATT—CMP—PCT—YDS—YDS/G—YPA—PER–TD/INT–TD%–INt%–Rate
489—274—-56.0—3047—190.4—6.23–5.00–19/12—3.89—2.5—-77.5
(PER is Pass Eff. Rating or Adjusted Yards per Attempt. For an explanation, see Allen Barra’s “Big Play”. In the chapter Unitas vs. Starr, there is an excellent explanation. TD% and INT% are based on attempts)

When you think about those 40 dropped passes, 5 of which were TD’s, you have to wonder what might have been. Without speculating why each was dropped and their actual effect. I considered what the effect on Harrington’s totals would be had the receivers caught just 56% of thpose passes, which is a moderate total but it is commensurate with his completion percentage. Obviously, his completion percentage would increase as would many of his other statistics.

ATT—CMP–PCT—TD/INT–TD%–INT%
489—296—60.1—22/12—-4.5—2.5

So figuring that the Lions stone-handed receivers caught 56% of their 40 drops, they would have caught 22 passes, 3 for TD’s. Harrington’s stats are much better without factoring in the other gains. I used two parameters to figure a high and low watermark for how much Harrington’s stats may have improved. Figuring that each of his completions were for the 6.23 yds/att, I determined that these would his new totals(low watermark):

ATT—CMP–PCT—YDS—YDS/G–YPA—PER—TD/INT–TD%–INT%–Rate
489—296—60.5–3184—199.0—6.51–5.28—22/12—4.5—-2.5—–84.2

For the high watermark, I used his 11.12 yards/completion.

ATT–CMP–PCT—YDS–YDS/G—YPA—PER—TD/INT–TD%–INT%—Rate
489–296—60.5—3292–205.8–6.73—-5.51—22/12–4.54–2.5——84.8

This would have significantly changed the perception of his season. Rather than being ranked in the bottom tier of QB’s he would have had a season comparable to those of Jake Plummer, David Carr, Kurt Warner and Matt Hasselbeck. In my next entry, I will explain where these stats would place him in the pantheon of admittedly disappointing Lion QB’s. The one question I am yet able to answer is whether or not the dropped passes the last two seasons are a result of Harrington’s poor accuracy or a lack of concentration, effort or ability on the part of the Lion’s receivers!

(Note:I am not a stats guru, this has been a “backyard mechanic” level enterprise, but I find them useful in beginning to understand the effects of those dropped passes. It may have actually lead to two or three more victories and a playoff appearance, judging by the looks of these projections.)