Detroit Lions Weblog

Statistical Comparison of Potentially Available QB’s

I looked at several QB’s who I believe the Lions might have an interest in pursuing for their backup QB or starting QB if Joey Harrington should falter. The QB’s I believe they are most likely to look at are:

Kurt Warner, Kelly Holcomb (if he doesn’t re-sign with Cleveland), Brad Johnson, Drew Brees (highly unlikely), Jeff Garcia (if he doesn’t sign with Tampa, likely only to come as a starter), Rich Gannon (if he is released by Oakland), Tim Couch (Did not play in 2004, should warrant a look if his arm appears healthy), Matt Hasselbeck (if he is not franchised or re-signed by Seattle, likely only to come as a starter), Jon Kitna (unlikely to be traded by Cincy), Jay Fiedler, and Drew Bledsoe (if he doesn’t immediately sign with the Cowboys).

I decided to compare the players career completion %, career passer rating, career Interception %, and career Passer Efficiency Rating (or adjusted yards per attempt). I also compared each players statistics for each of these categories over the past three years. I think that the most recent three seasons may provide a better representation of what the players abilities may be at this particular point in time.

Career Completion %————-Last 3 YRS.
1. Kurt Warner 65.9—————1.Rich Gannon 64.1(584/911)
2. Kelly Holcomb 63.4————-2.Kelly Holcomb 63.8(316/495)
3. Brad Johnson 61.8————-3.Kurt Warner 63.3 (356/562)
4. Drew Brees 61.3—————4. Brad Johnson 62.3(700/1124)
5. Jeff Garcia 61.0—————-5. Jon Kitna 61.9(679/1097)
6. Rich Gannon 60.2————–6.Drew Brees 61.4(787/1282)
7. Tim Couch 59.8—————-7. Matt Hasselbeck 61.1(859/1406)
8. Matt Hasselbeck 59.7———-8. Tim Couch 60.5(665/1100)
9. Jon Kitna 58.8——————9. Jeff Garcia 59.5(697/1172)
10. Jay Fiedler 58.7————–10. Drew Bledsoe 59.1(905/1531)
11. Drew Bledsoe 57.0———-11. Jay Fiedler 57.7 (459/796)
12. Joey Harrington 54.2——–12. Joey Harrington 54.2(798/1472)
13. Mike McMahon 43.8———-13.Mike McMahon 42.5(82/193)

Obviously with all of the short and intermediate range passing in the West Coast style of offense, a premium is placed on passing accuracy. It is not unreasonable to expect higher percentage passing from the QB’s in the West Coast System. The short, timing passes are designed so that the Qb has a high potential for success.

Career Passer Rating————Last 3 YRS
1. Kurt Warner 95.7————-1.Rich Gannon 90.6
2. Jeff Garcia 87.2—————2.Brad Johnson 86.0
3. Rich Gannon 84.7————-3.Drew Brees 83.0
4. Brad Johnson 84.0————4.Jon Kitna 82.8
5. Matt Hasselbeck 83.7———5. Kelly Holcomb 82.4
6. Drew Brees 83.2————–6.Jeff Garcia 81.9
7. Kelly Holcomb 77.6———–7. Matt Hasselbeck 80.5
8. Jay Fiedler 76.9—————8. Drew Bledsoe 79.2
9. Drew Bledsoe 76.7———–9. Kurt Warner 77.5
10. Jon Kitna 75.7—————10. Jay Fiedler 75.9
11. Tim Couch 75.2————-11. Tim Couch 75.4
12. Joey Harrington 67.2——-12. Joey Harrington 67.2
13. Mike McMahon 55.0——–13. Mike McMahon 46.1

Int% Career———————Last 3 YRs
1. Gannon 2.47——————1.Gannon 1.76
2. Garcia 2.49——————-2. Johnson 2.67
3. Hasselbeck 2.73————-3. Garcia 2.73
4. Johnson 2.80—————–4. Bledsoe 2.81
5. Brees 2.90——————–5. Hasselbeck 2.84
6. Bledsoe 2.99—————–6.Warner 2.85
7. Harrington 3.40————–7. Brees 2.96
8. Warner 3.51—————–8. Kitna 3.19
9. Kitna 3.63——————–9. Harrington 3.40
10. Fiedler 3.87—————-10.Fiedler 3.77
11. Couch 3.91—————–11. Couch 4.10
12. McMahon 4.22————-12. Holcomb 4.24
13. Holcomb 5.00————–13.McMahon 6.22

Interception percentage is a good indicator of success. I think Drew Brees’s stats are anomalous. His most recent season was exceptional, the two previous were not very good. It will be interesting to see what kind of QB Brees will become in the future. Interceptions are very costly for all teams, but for ball control offenses like the West Coast Offense they can be very costly.

Passer Efficiency Rating——–Last 3 Years
1. Warner 6.64——————1.Gannon 6.24
2. Hasselbeck 5.73————–2. Hasselbeck 5.90
3. Garcia 5.70——————-3.Warner 5.43
4. Gannon 5.60—————–4.Johnson 5.37
5. Johnson 5.43—————–5. Garcia 5.27
6. Brees 5.25——————–6. Bledsoe 5.23
7. Bledsoe 5.08——————7. Brees 5.19
8. Fielder 4.95——————-8. Kitna 5.14
9. Kitna 4.65———————9. Fiedler 4.83
10. Couch 4.54——————10. Holcomb 4.59
11. Holcomb 4.21—————11. Couch 4.50
12. Harrington 3.89————-12. Harrington 3.89
13. McMahon 3.44————–13. McMahon 2.27

The Passer Efficiency Rating is a statistical adjustment to the Qb’s Yards Per Attempt. Essentially, it takes the players Total Passing Yards and subtracts 50 yards each time the player throws an interception from that total. The reason for that is many football experts believe that an interception on average costs the offense 50 yards of field position. The subtracted total then is divided by the QB’s passing attempts.

As you can see, any of the above players are a drastic improvement upon the totals posted by Joey Harrington and Mike McMahon throughout their Lion careers. Looking at each player’s stats and their intangibles (leadership ability, Playoff and Super Bowl experience), if he is willing, I believe that Brad Johnson would probably be the Lion’s best choice. He is a very capable and consistent QB who obviously would like to start, but may be willing to sign a contract without explicit guarantee of a starting position. Johnson is tough and may have a chip on his shoulder which could provide additional motivation to succeed. His experience is invaluable.