Detroit Lions Weblog

Matt Millen, firefighter

This is an entertaining transcript from a speech Matt Millen gave at his alma mater, Penn State. As always, he is candid about the fact that a large part of his job is attempting to debunk, deny, or spin information that is written about the Lions. In my eyes, if he is reading the internet for info like this, then the Lions are sunk. With a 16-48 record during his tenure, the internet and sports multi-media should be among the least of his concerns. The upcoming free agency period, draft and camps are the most pivotal in his career as a player, broadcaster or President/General Manager!

Firefighter!

Also worth reading two Lions fans debate whether or not the acquisition of Drew Brees makes sense for the Lions organization (bear in mind it would take 1-2 first rd draft picks, paying Brees’s contract, and absorbing the cap hit from releasing Harrington would all determing factors in such a costly move.)

To Brees or Not to Brees….

In regards to Brees, he did flourish without a consistent threat a wide receiver(Eric Parker and Keenan McCardell were adequate). Still, he had the luxury of a dynamic, game-changing TE in Antonio Gates, and a dominant pass-catching running back in LaDainian Tomlinson. His 27 TD’s with 7 INT’s are very tempting even at the high asking price. Yet, there is little guarantee that he would have the same success within the Lions offense.

Pro Football Weekly 02/28/05 issue

In Pro Football Weekly’s “Way We Hear It” column, they quoted an anonymous member of the Lions personnel department as saying that their current draft preference is to add a defensive playmaker. The Lions official also stated that “We aren’t done on offense.” No specifics were imparted according to the article but PFW indicates that the Lions have looked at the offensive line as an offseason priority and are considering moving G Damien Woody from the right to the left side of the line. With all of the top draft picks that have been recently invested at the skill positions on offense, many outside the organization believe the Lions priority will be to acquire a Pass Rusher and a Safety in the draft. The team source said that the Lions would also have an interest in a top-flight Tight End.

QB revolving door continues…

With the anouncement of the release of Drew Bledsoe from the Buffalo Bills, here is an unofficial tally of potential Lion backup/starting QB’s:

1.Drew Brees
2. Jeff Garcia
3. Kurt Warner
4.Drew Bledsoe
5.Brian Griese
6.Brad Johnson
7. Rich Gannon
8. Drew Bledsoe
9. Matt Hasselbeck
10. Jay Fiedler
11. Kelly Holcomb
12. Jon Kitna

I also believe that Tim Couch, provided he has some good workouts could emerge as hot commodity in the offseason. Of the players on this list I immediately disqualify Brees because he would be too costly, his stock is very high right now. I would also disqualify Bledsoe because he appears to not fit well in West Coast-oriented offensive system. Jon Kitna also comes off the list because he likes being a backup to his best friend, Carson Palmer. The right opportunity would have to be out there for Kitna to move on it appears. Hasselbeck in all likelihood would only come as a starter. The same may be said for Jeff Garcia, too.

That reduces our list to:
1. Kurt Warner
2. Brian Griese-if he doesn’t remain in Tampa
3. Brad Johnson-if he doesn’t retire
4. Rich Gannon- if he doesn’t retire and is willing to be a backup.
5. Jay Fiedler
6. Kelly Holcomb

A lot of the speculation that will emerge over the Lions Qb situation will depend on their true plans for the direction of the organization. Can they afford not to make the playoffs again this year? What will happen to fan interest if they produce another 5-6 win season? How serious are the Lions about adapting their offense and finding ways to be more productive on third downs and in the “red zone”? If they make changes, who will best fit? Which player will have the most amenable contract demands? How long can they wait on the open market with the fact that they only have one QB currently under contract? Are they looking for a capable backup who could step in if needed, or are they looking for someone who would likely emerge as a replacement for Harrington?

Jeff Garcia released 02/14/05

Happy Valentine’s Day, Jeff Garcia! You have been released from your contract with the Cleveland Browns, are dating a former Playboy Playmate (amidst rampant speculation about your sexual preference), and the likely the emerging front runner to be signed by the Detroit Lions as competition to “Champagne” Joey Harrington.

Can the Lions afford both Harrington and Garcia? Is he willing to be a back-up? Are there other teams who would be willing to start Garcia (Seattle?)?

PFPD

Last week was a dark time in my life. In case anyone hasn’t noticed, the 2004-5 NFL season ended with last Sunday’s New England Super Bowl victory. With the tumescent build-up to the grand finale, I suffered from serious hangover effects. I was sweating profusely for three days. I was incontinent. I had an irregular pulse and breathing patterns. I had an incredible urge to down a half gallon of cheap Vodka. I was walking in my sleep. After a couple of days, I realized it was necessary to seek professional help. The doctor told me I was suffering from Post Football Panic Disorder. With his assistance, I am now very much better. I guess Arena Football can serve as a reasonable fascimile in the interim. I am finally able to unswaddle from the blankets, and I am energized.

While suffering from this infliction, I read in USA Today Sports Weekly’s 02/09 “Buzz” column, that Lions GM, Matt Millen, said “his team had no interest in pursuing a QB such as San Diego’s Drew Brees.” What this means, I am unsure of. It is clear though, that with only one QB under contract, there will continue to be a lot of speculation about whom the Lions may hold an interest in.

The Lions also hired a new Wide Receivers coach, Fred Graves. Graves, who was last seen coaching an abysmal Cleveland Browns team, also has coached with the Buffalo Bills from 2001-2003. Kevin Higgins, the last Wide Receivers coach for the Lions, was not offered a new contract after his last one expired. I wonder if 91 dropped passes in two seasons may have had any impact on that decision. Graves, who coached the underachieving Browns receiver corps, has a lot of work ahead of him.

Important Off-Season Dates:
Feb 22 Deadline to designate franchise and transition players

Feb 23-Mar 1 Draft Combine

March 1 Deadline for submission of qualifying offers by clubs to their restricted free agents whose contracts have expired and to whom they desire to retain a right of first refusal/compensation. It is also the deadline to retain exclusive negotiating rights to their players with fewer than 3 seasons of free agent credit whose contracts have expired.

March 22 Veteran Free Agency begins, trading period begins

Apr 15 Signing Period ends for Restricted Free Agents

Apr 22 Deadline for old club to exercise right of first refusal to restricted free agents.

Apr 23-24 NFL Draft

Mock Drafts

Imagine this setting, a dark, dank basement that is poorly lit. A middle-aged man, single, living in his mother’s basement, and wearing ill-fitting clothes is awash in the cool blue glow of a computer screen. While munching on Doritos, the casual observer would believe our protagonist is probably looking at pornography. But no, our erstwhile perv is actually a football obsessed nut (much like the one who is typing this stupid story) who is scrolling through thousands of internet pages trying to get a handle on whether or not his favorite team should take a chance in the 6th round on a division II Tight End.

Without further adieu:

Donaghy’s Mock Draft

and for more Lion selections in mock drafts:

Lion’s Mock 1st Round Selections

Pats Vs. Eagles Super Bowl

It is hard for me to imagine many scenarios where the Eagles will win this game. This version of the Patriots is playing in it’s 3rd Super Bowl. They have shown time and again that they are capable of stopping teams from utilizing their most lethal weapons. They are not a glamorous team, other than Tom Brady or Corey Dillon, I don’t even think many of their players would appear on people’s fantasy teams. Still, in my years of watching football, I am hard-pressed to imagine a team that has proved more capable in tight games. They have an incredible knack for making big plays when they most need them.

The Philadelphia Eagles are no mere slouches and they will not roll over. Donovan McNabb will have to perform nearly perfectly if the Eagles are to win this game. The Eagles will have to obtain an early lead and not turn the ball over. They will have to attack the Patriots secondary with their vertical passing game. Terrell Owens will have to play like the Owens who is one of the best open field runners in NFL history and one of the most difficult to bring down.

Writer’s have been waxing euphoric about the Patriots establishing themselves in the pantheon of the NFL’s greatest teams by winning this game. Whether or not history will regard the team that highly, is of no consequence. This team will continue to frustrate and dismantle it’s opponents. It won’t be pretty, but in the end the Patriots will win third Super Bowl in four seasons.

Patriots 24 Eagles 14. The MVP will be either Teddy Bruschi, Mike Vrabel or Deion Branch.

USA Today Sports Weekly “The BUZZ”,pg.3 02/02/05

Here is the football “Buzz” column on pg.3 of Sports Weekly:

“The Lions are interested in San Diego Quarterback Drew Brees if he’s offered in a trade or left unprotected, which would lead to questions about Joey Harrington’s future.”

Obviously, much like the reports that indicated that the Lions were evaluating whether or not to release Joey Harrington, it only makes sense that the team
would explore any potential opportunity it may have with the newly hot commodity, Brees. That being said, I feel like it is a lot to ask that the Lions would be able to afford Brees’ new salary after last season’s performance. Furthermore, I don’t think that they are in a position where they have the luxury of being able to consider trading away a bunch of draft picks for Brees,
should he be franchised. This situation will certainly continue to be a major element of the Lions offseason as it moves forward.

Revisiting Harrington’s 2003 and 2004 seasons

A recent entry of mine looked at what Joey Harrington’s statistics may have been if he hadn’t suffered from 40 dropped passes and 5 dropped TD passes this season. Looking back at 2003, he also suffered from 51 more dropped passes that season. That is a total of 91 drops, by no means even had those passes been caught, would Joey Harrington somehow have become an All-Pro, but yet, these dropped passes have had a lot of effect on the quality of his performance and how it has been perceived.

Here is his career stat line:

Year—ATT—CMP—PCT—YDS—TD/INT—YPA—PER—TD%—INT%—QB Rate
2002–429—215—-50.1—2294–12/16—–5.3—3.482–2.797-3.73——59.9
2003–554–309—–55.8—2880–17/22—–5.2–3.213—3.069-3.971—-63.9
2004–489–274—-56.0—3047—19/12—–6.2—5.004–3.885–2.454—77.5

career-1472-798–54.2—8221—48/50—–5.6—3.887—3.261–3.397—67.2

Using his 55.8% completion percentage in ‘03, his 56.0% comp. percentage in ‘04, his 5.2 YPA in ‘03, and his 6.2 YPA in ‘04, here’s what his career stats may have looked like:

Year—ATT—CMP—PCT—YDS—TD/INT—YPA—PER—TD%—INT%—QB Rate
2002–429—215—-50.1—2294–12/16—–5.3—3.482–2.797–3.73—-59.9
2003–554—337—60.8—-3026–19/22—-5.46–3.477—3.069-3.971—69.2
2004–489—296—60.5—-3183—22/12–6.51—5.28—-4.499–2.454–84.4

Career1472-848–57.6—–8503—53/50–5.78—4.08—-3.601–3.397—72.0

Using this projection, Harrington gets 50 more career completions, completes 3.4% more of his passes for 282 more total passing yards. He throws 5 more career TDS and his Yards per Attempt increases .18 yards per attempt. His QB rating improves by 4.8 more rating points.

Using his same completion percentages but adjusting his totals for his 9.32 yds/completion in ‘03 and 11.12 yds/completion this season, this is what his stats may have looked like:

Year—ATT—CMP—PCT—YDS—TD/INT—YPA—PER—TD%—INT%—QB Rate
2002–429—-215—50.1—-2294-12/16—-5.3—-3.482–2.797—3.73—59.9
2003–554—337—-60.8—3141—19/22–5.67—3.684—3.069—3.971–70.1
2004–489—296—-60.5—3292—22/12–5.51—5.51—-4.499—2.454—85.3

career1472–848—57.6—-8727—53/50–5.93–4.23—-3.261—3.397—-72.7

Again, his statistics improve. He throws for 506 more total passing yards and his yards per attempt increases .33 yards/ attempt. He makes a significant improvement in passer rating gaining 5.5 more points over the course of his short career.

I am not sure what the long term will bear out for Joey Harrington as an NFL player. He has been thrown into a difficult situation and has struggled. Still, I think if you look at what just a moderate view of the effects those 91 dropped balls may have had on his career thus far, it becomes clearer that he may be better than what we have given him credit for.

Here is another analysis of Joey’s development:

The Big Question:Is Harrington Developing?

Even More Ted Tollner

I recently e-mailed Pro Sports Weekly’s John Czarnecki about the impact of the Ted Tollner hiring. I asked him about the likelihood of Tollner’s presence helping to turn around the Lion offense, even with San Francisco’s pitiful offensive performance under his direction last season. I also asked him what Tollner’s philosophy towards utilizing the running game might be. Finally, I mused on the Lions receivers 91 dropped passes over the last two seasons. Here is his e-mail response:

“Ted is a good, solid coach…his USC background says he knows about the running game. The bottom line is that Mooch doesn’t have any confidence in Harrington. So how does Tollner make that work? But, technically, he will help Harrington and any receiver with fundamentals. A good hire in that area. But Mooch still makes all the decisions.”

Everyone should purchase USA Today Pro Sports Weekly’s newspaper at their local newstands. Mr. Czarnecki consistently provides some of the best football analysis out there.

Another Take on the Tollner situation is an article from the always engaging Doug Warren:

A Ho-Hum Hire

I am not sure that Tollner will turn out to be such a bad hire. He has some young weapons to utilize. The cupboard isn’t as bare as it has been at some of his other NFL stops. That being said, 91 dropped passes in the last two seasons and counting, a QB controversy, injuries and Steve Mariucci potentially wielding iron-fisted control over any potential innovation to the offensive scheme all could lead to Tollner’s tenure becoming unremarkable or worse, disappointing.