Detroit Lions Weblog

Concerns, Predictions

The Lions have finally obtained the necessary personnel to contend for the NFC North division title. There are several things that have to happen in order for them to be able to do so:

1)Kevin Jones must remain healthy (He is infinitely more important than any other player for the team to be a success)
2) Joey Harrington must continue his gradual improvement (around 60% completion pctg, INT’s<15,TD's>20, better decision-making)
3) The defense must find a way to pressure opposing QB’s. Dick Jauron doesn’t like to blitz a lot. If they are unable to get a consistent additional pass rush from Shaun Cody or Kalimba Edwards, they will need to blitz more. If they blitz more that means more man-to-man coverage in the secondary increasing the likelihood of giving up big offensive plays.
4) Red Zone Offense The Lions have to find a way to put the ball in the end zone. At this point, most opponents will blitz freely in the red zone forcing Harrington to make a quick decision to check down in order to avoid a sack. Jeff Backus and Kelley Butler will have to perform better against opposing edge rushers so that Harrington has the time to find open receivers.
5) The defense must tackle better. During the pre-season, it was apparent that the Lions tackling was not as consistent as it will need to be in order for them to be succesful.

I am very concerned about the offensive system in general, at this point. With all of the receivers that the Lions posess, the recent rules changes in regards to the “5-yard contact” rule, and the general impotence of the Lions offense last season, it is very important that their philosophy become more agressive. Their passing game has to be more vertical and the team should utilize the match-up problems that it’s skill players can generate. With the effectiveness of Kevin Jones and the dink-n-dunk West Coast Offense, opposing defenses can go a long ways towards neutralizing the Lions offense by walking the safeties closer to the line of scrimmage and loading up the “tackle box”. If the Lions stubbornly refuse to stretch the field (at least on occasion) it will be a long disappointing season.

I ran through the Lions season and have them ending up at a lukewarm 8-8.
WK 1 Loss Green Bay 31-27
WK 2 Win at Chicago 21-13
WK 3 BYE
WK 4 Loss at Tampa Bay 21-17
WK 5 Win Baltimore 17-16
WK 6 Loss at Carolina 27-12
WK 7 Win at Cleveland 28-17
WK 8 Win Chicago 31-21
WK 9 Loss at Minnesota 34-17
WK 10 Win Arizona 21-17
WK 11 Loss at Dallas 24-17
WK 12 Loss Atlanta 23-14
WK 13 Win Minnesota 27-24
WK 14 Loss at Green Bay 34-14
WK 15 Win Cincy 27-20
WK 16 at New Orleans(?) Win 28-17
WK 17 Loss at Pittsburgh 37-20

The most crucial games in my opinion are week 1 at home against Green Bay and weeks 10-13(Arizona, Dallas, Atlanta, and Minnesota). I still don’t believe the Lions will be much better on the road this year. If they can win against Green Bay and steal one against Atlanta at home or against Dallas on the road they may find themselves in the position to contend for the division.