Detroit Lions Weblog

Week 11: Injuries, Matchup

Out: Det Dre Bly Teddy Lehman
Doubtful: Det Earl Holmes DAL WR Patrick Crayton
Questionable: Det Boss Bailey Jeff Garcia DAL CB Anthony Henry
Probable DET Andre Goodman Paul Smith DAL TE Brett Pierce

Week 11 Lions vs. Cowboys

Under normal circumstances, I would just chalk this game up as an instant loss. The Lions still have incredible difficulties on the road. They haven’t won consecutive games since they defeated Houston and Chicago early last season. They have yet to beat anyone with a winning record this season. I think it is about a 65% chance that the Lions will lose each of their next two games against the Cowboys and Falcons, effectively finishing off their playoff hopes.

That being said, I do think the Lions have a good chance to win this game. The Cowboys are coming off a near miraculous win against the Eagles this Monday night. The Cowboys have had a short week of preparation and did not acquit themselves with a very good performance on Monday. The one factor that will likely determine this game’s outcome is this: The Lions are 4-1 when they have more yards rushing than their opponent and are 0-4 when they have fewer yards rushing. That doesn’t mean that theLions have all of that great of a rushing attack(au contraire), but when the Lions defense is able to limit an opponent’s ground game, especially a very good one like Dallas’s, they have a very good chance of winning.

On Defense, the Lions will be without Earl Holmes and Dre Bly. The Lions secondary got diced up by the Cards last Sunday, but somehow were able to avoid relinquishing many big plays. This week, the Lions will need their front four to be dominating. Shaun Rogers, “Big Daddy” Wilkinson, Marcus Bell and company will need to help cover for the loss of MLB Earl Holmes, who is having his best season as Lion. Wali Rainer, a special teams ace, must step in and perform much better than he did against Arizona. Especially since the Cowboys have a very good ground attack that they will utilize to set up their play-action passes, which if Rainer and the safeties continue to bite on, will be the Lions undoing as the game unfolds and the Cowboys beat them continuously with numerous deep passes. I can’t stress enough the importance of the Lions front four pressuring Drew Bledsoe. In the last two previous weeks, the Lions have faced two stationary pocket passers and have been unable to put them on their backs with any consistency. Bledsoe can be forced into making costly errors if pressured. Kalimba Edwards will likely face double teams or get chipped by a back or Tight End, so it will be necessary for the Lions to get a rush from the middle and for James Hall, Jared DeVries, and Corey Redding to amp up their attack. It will be interesting to see who the Lions match CB R. W. McQuarters with. Personally, with his physical nature, I would have R.W. McQuarters battle with Keyshawn Johnson and hope that CB’s Keith Smith, Andre Goodman, and Stanley Wilson do not get burned deep by Terry Glenn. I expect the Cowboys to attack the middle of the field with Jason Witten quite often realizing that SS Kenoy Kennedy and MLB Wali Rainer will have some difficulty in their coverage against Witten.

The Lions offense, without a clear cut starting QB at this point, will struggle mightily if they don’t attack the Cowboys downfield in their passing attack. The Cowboys SS, Roy Williams, is the best and most active in the box safety in the NFL. If the Lions insist on three yard passes, with no apparent threat of stretching the field, Williams will be a one man wrecking crew. The Lions can’t afford to be conservative at this point, if they are succesful in their passing game it should help open the field for Kevin Jones (at least for 3 quarters until Mariucci turns the game over to Shawn Bryson and Artose Pinner). In order to be able to stretch the field, with the Lions poor pass protection and the Cowboys relentless blitzing, the Lions will need to utilize some more max-protection schemes to try and free up Charles Rogers, Roy Williams and Marcus Pollard. I believe that the Cowboys will cheat their free safety towards WR Roy Williams in an effort to make the Lions have to go to other receivers. This is an excellent opportunity for Charles Rogers and Big Mike Williams to prove they have some value to this team by providing some big plays. The offensive line will have to do it’s best to protect the Lions QB’s from the young Cowboys pass rushers, Marcus Spears and DeMarcus Ware. If Garcia starts, he may not survive with his health intact. If Harrington starts he may revert to getting happy feet and checking down to secondary receivers.

I want to believe that the Lions can win this game, I truly do. It is not an impossibility. If the Lions are able to limit the Cowboys ground attack, pressure Bledsoe and continue their opportunism with generating takeaways, this will be a close game. If the Cowboys pound the ball and the Lions offense remains as stagnant and limpid as it has been throughout this season then this could be a total onslaught.

Tuna’s 24 Leo’s 14