Millen’s Worst Draft Yet as Team President?

April 30, 2007 on 2:52 pm | In Uncategorized |

As much as I had hoped entering the draft that the Lions would parlay their number two overall draft pick for a bevy of picks or players, I can’t fault the logic of selecting WR Calvin Johnson, in spite of all of the team’s previous draft failures at that position, since Johnson was considered by the general consensus as the premium talent in this year’s draft.    Matt Millen, resident “wide receiver expert”, made the right call with selecting Johnson, in spite of the endless supply of jokes that have been generated from the team selecting four wide receivers with their first draft pick (all in the top 10) in the past five seasons.

As surreal as it may be, the Lions should have a dynamic offense with the addition of Calvin Johnson to a personnel  mix that already featured quality receivers in Roy Williams, Mike Furrey, Shaun McDonald, and potentially, Marcus Robinson, if he has enough gas left in the tank to contribute.  I am moderately concerned that Mike Martz will become so enamored of his new toy (Johnson) that eventually Roy Williams will demand a trade in anger over his diminished role in the Lions offense.    I would also like to see a rough estimate of the complete salary cap charge the Lions will have committed to wide receivers (past and present) once Johnson is signed, too.

The next seven draft picks are where my concern/anxiety begins.   I am a graduate of Michigan State University, therefore I am somewhat of a homer for QB Drew Stanton.   That being said, I believe that the Lions made a grievous error in selecting him so early, when they had so many more critical needs to address.   Stanton is a character guy, who is both tough and courageous.   He is also familiar with a losing culture, after four years in East Lansing, and will likely be quite comfortable in Detroit as a result.   Stanton’s selection is a clear indication that the organization is all too willing to settle for the underachieving play of players like DE Kalimba”The Ghost” Edwards, MLB-to-be Teddy “I.R.” Lehman, and G Damien Woody, rather than pursue upgrades.  

In my eyes, if you can remain objective, Stanton is eerily similar to former Lion QB Mike McMahon.   They are both are second in their respective school career passing yards totals and have been positively referred to with adjectives like “gritty”, “spirited”, and “field leader” by various observers.   These platitudes, that are often used to describe intangible qualities, are duplicitous, though.   As much as we pine for the success of underdogs, hard-workers, etc.,  these pithy descriptions that are often appended to players serve to obscure the cold reality that genuine talent and actual performance are both lacking.

Both players came from disappointing programs who have been mired in mediocrity, at least until recently for Rutgers, and have little experience with leading their teams to major victories.   They both had their draft stock increase dramatically as a result of quality performances in post-season senior exhibition games in front of NFL scouts.

Their stats are eerily similar, too:

Senior Season:–CMP-ATT-YDS–TD–%–Career Passing YDS

Stanton——–164–269–1807–12–61%–6524

McMahon——-169–340–2157–18–50%–6608

They both battled a number of injuries throughout their college careers, suffered from poor passing accuracy, and the inability to deliver a nice, tight spiral in the passing game.  Neither was gifted with the greatest of passing arms, either.  Both players were highly regarded for their athleticism and noted for their willingness to scramble outside of the pocket and successfully run with ball.

The primary difference between Stanton and McMahon is the presence of a big-time agent, Drew Rosenhaus for Stanton, and the significantly wider media exposure Stanton has enjoyed at Michigan State. 

I do believe that Stanton may be able to overcome these haunting similarities to Mike McMahon, especially under the quality tutelage of Jon Kitna and Mike Martz, unlike McMahon, whose tenure in Detroit was riddled by being surrounded with complete organizational incompetence. 

The Lions were agressive in this year’s draft, you have to acknowledge that.  They wheeled and dealed their way to making three picks in the second round.   The selections after Stanton were equally puzzling, though.   DE Ikaika Alama-Francis has a NFL pedigree, since his father was Bart Starr’s back-up QB in Green Bay.  With his NFL pedigree considered, Alama-Francis is still relatively inexperienced as a football player. Alama-Francis also suffered an injury in a senior exhibition game that may interfere with his ability to participate in some of the early minicamps.  

Considering all of this, I think it is safe to say that he is somewhat of a project pick, in an organization that needs near-immediate contributions from the players that it selects.  Alama-Francis should eventually be in the mix to start at left DE, which serves more of a run-stopping role in the defense.   The sad reality is that by selecting Alama-Francis, the Lions completely ignored their need for a quality edge-rusher (Central Michigan’s Dan Bazuin was on the board), which would certainly could be deemed more worthy of a project pick.  Alama-Francis compares favorably to Cory Redding, according to Head Coach Rod Marinelli. I would compare him to another failed Millen draft pick, Montana DE Johnathan Taylor.

S Gerald Alexander was a fast-riser on some draft boards who should compete for playing time immediately and posesses valuable versatility.   He has some collegiate experience playing CB, so he may be able to provide some depth their in a pinch, too.   I don’t dislike the selection of Alexander, the Lions secondary will need to be bolstered, since they were not inclined to try and upgrade their pass rush in the draft.

CB A.J. Davis is considered to be a good value pick as fourth rounder.   That being said, he is undersized as a Cover-2 cornerback, and a player who is considered to be better suited to the Lions defense, Tanard Jackson, still remained on the draft board.  G Manuel Ramirez is an agressive, strong, mauler-type of interior linemen who will compete with players like Frank Davis and the versatile Blaine Saipia for a roster spot.  MLB Johnny Baldwin is from a small school and appears to be virtually anonymous in most draft guides.   “Mr. Irrelevant”, Ramzee Robinson, is better suited to the Lions Cover-2 defense than A.J. Davis and is considered a good value as a 7th round pick.

It remains to be seen if this Matt Millen’s worst draft, and whether he will be around to have a worse one yet in the future?   I can’t help but think that ultimately, the Lions will enter next season with another top 10 draft pick and a completely new front office and coaching staff in place, partially as a result of the team ignoring it’s glaring roster needs with this draft. 

 

 

7 Comments »

RSS feed for comments on this post. TrackBack URI

  1. Millen’s Worst Draft Yet as Team President?…

    Trackback by University Update — April 30, 2007 #

  2. Wow Blogman, it is apparent that you aren’t too thrilled. You hear all the time about someone kills themselves by erotic asphyxiation while wearing something they wouldn’t be caught dead in public with. It’s tragic, but you just can’t help but laugh. This is the same thing.

    This season is lost. It’s off the books. Every year since I was a lad, I predicted the Lions would win it all. This is different. This team will be lucky to go 3-13. My week one prediction? Oakland 42, Detroit 17.

    For the sake of the younger readers of this blog I will stop commenting now.

    Comment by Hondo — April 30, 2007 #

  3. I’m still trying to keep hope, but not very encouraged by the picks after Johnson. Most of the late picks I never heard of, don’t seem to step up and contribute much(Swancutt, Tucker…)

    But I read this in Kowalski’s latest blog entry, and it either gives me hope that their scouting is NOW at least as good as the rest of the league:

    Millen said, for the first time since he’s been in Detroit, it was like the rest of the league was picking off their board. The Lions felt they couldn’t afford to wait.

    Comment by Harry Sanders — May 2, 2007 #

  4. Harry–Good points. Sarge likes those hard workers and Millen has obviously had his fill of underachievers. My primary quibble is that they desperately need players who can contribute now, iregardless of work ethic and how high of a ceiling that a particular player may possess. Talent is still essential–Johnson should be a Pro Bowler in Martz’s offense. I just wonder if there will be enough balls to go around, Roy Williams may end up not being particularly happy.

    Comment by Steve — May 2, 2007 #

  5. Very good analysis Steve. My thinking is when you are coming off a 3-13 season and you pick 2nd in the draft you should come away with more than 1 starter and 6 project picks. It is unreal to me that you could have soooo many needs at so many positions and fill zero of them. Calvin Johnson will be a great player, however wide receiver was not a need position.

    Maybe Mr. Ford will die before me and Mark Cuban, or someone who cares, will buy the team and make it a winner. I really like Marinelli, but you cannot win without talent.

    Comment by T Rick — May 3, 2007 #

  6. Well-thought post, but I have to wholeheartedly disagree w/ your comparison of Stanton to McMahon. You say their stats are “eerily similar,” but you glossed over the biggest difference between the two: completion percentage. Stanton played in a tougher conference than McMahon and managed to complete 61 percent of his passes, vs. just 50 for McMahon. Completion percentage and games started are the largest predictors of QB success and Stanton has good numbers in both of those. Check out this quote from footballoutsiders.com:

    “Teams looking for a QB in the second round should give Drew Stanton a long look. His play at Michigan State was uneven at best, but he has prototypical size, a strong arm and excellent mobility. Though he didn’t start many games in college (29), he did complete 64.2 percent of his passes. It’s tough to say too much about second-round QBs because there have not been many in recent years, but based on the limited data, completion percentage seems to gain greater importance in the second round. I wouldn’t spend a first-round pick on Stanton, especially given his erratic play at Michigan State, but he has all the tools to be a quality NFL starter and could be a good value in the second round.”

    Comment by Mike — May 3, 2007 #

  7. Mike–Completion percentage is a good point. I also wonder about their YPA (yards per attempt) for both their career and senior season as qualitative means of comparison?

    The reason why I glossed the Cmp % in my comparison was that I assumed that Stanton had better(more talented) receivers who were less likely to drop the ball(opinion, MSU receivers had a lot of drops) and were more likely to get open.

    I also believed, in spite of how bad that the Spartans were, that Rutgers was likely the more one-dimensional offense, since they were often out of games early in the 2nd half and were forced to throw the ball. I believed that opponents who know that McMahon had to throw late in games could utilize nickel or dime packages increasing the complexity of completing passes. 60-50 is a big gulf in completion pctg., but I believe that they were not far apart overall as seniors.

    Stanton is without a doubt the better talent. McMahon NFL performance bears out that he was an inaccurate passer, which (comp.%) seems to be a “fuzzy” intangible like plate discipline in baseball, and appears to be impossible to teach either you are an accurate passer or you are not. I wonder what Stanton’s performance will show, if he gets the opportunity?

    I am very paranoid about Stanton because Lions fans will want to rush him to the field if Kitna, or Orlovsky, experience any difficulties. Stanton needs at least one complete season under Martz before he plays in this offense, in my opinion.

    Thanks for the excellent thoughts, too.

    T Rick–Thanks for the comments. At some point the Lions will find lightning in a bottle. It can’t continue for 50 more years, can it?

    Comment by Steve — May 4, 2007 #

Leave a comment

XHTML: <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <strike> <strong>

Powered by WordPress with Pool theme design by Borja Fernandez.
Entries and comments feeds. Valid XHTML and CSS. ^Top^