Comments on: Millen’s Worst Draft Yet as Team President?

By: Steve

Steve — Fri, 04 May 2007 18:06:14 +0000

Mike–Completion percentage is a good point. I also wonder about their YPA (yards per attempt) for both their career and senior season as qualitative means of comparison?

The reason why I glossed the Cmp % in my comparison was that I assumed that Stanton had better(more talented) receivers who were less likely to drop the ball(opinion, MSU receivers had a lot of drops) and were more likely to get open.

I also believed, in spite of how bad that the Spartans were, that Rutgers was likely the more one-dimensional offense, since they were often out of games early in the 2nd half and were forced to throw the ball. I believed that opponents who know that McMahon had to throw late in games could utilize nickel or dime packages increasing the complexity of completing passes. 60-50 is a big gulf in completion pctg., but I believe that they were not far apart overall as seniors.

Stanton is without a doubt the better talent. McMahon NFL performance bears out that he was an inaccurate passer, which (comp.%) seems to be a “fuzzy” intangible like plate discipline in baseball, and appears to be impossible to teach either you are an accurate passer or you are not. I wonder what Stanton’s performance will show, if he gets the opportunity?

I am very paranoid about Stanton because Lions fans will want to rush him to the field if Kitna, or Orlovsky, experience any difficulties. Stanton needs at least one complete season under Martz before he plays in this offense, in my opinion.

Thanks for the excellent thoughts, too.

T Rick–Thanks for the comments. At some point the Lions will find lightning in a bottle. It can’t continue for 50 more years, can it?

By: Mike

Mike — Thu, 03 May 2007 23:01:11 +0000

Well-thought post, but I have to wholeheartedly disagree w/ your comparison of Stanton to McMahon. You say their stats are “eerily similar,” but you glossed over the biggest difference between the two: completion percentage. Stanton played in a tougher conference than McMahon and managed to complete 61 percent of his passes, vs. just 50 for McMahon. Completion percentage and games started are the largest predictors of QB success and Stanton has good numbers in both of those. Check out this quote from footballoutsiders.com:

“Teams looking for a QB in the second round should give Drew Stanton a long look. His play at Michigan State was uneven at best, but he has prototypical size, a strong arm and excellent mobility. Though he didn’t start many games in college (29), he did complete 64.2 percent of his passes. It’s tough to say too much about second-round QBs because there have not been many in recent years, but based on the limited data, completion percentage seems to gain greater importance in the second round. I wouldn’t spend a first-round pick on Stanton, especially given his erratic play at Michigan State, but he has all the tools to be a quality NFL starter and could be a good value in the second round.”

By: T Rick

T Rick — Thu, 03 May 2007 13:05:20 +0000

Very good analysis Steve. My thinking is when you are coming off a 3-13 season and you pick 2nd in the draft you should come away with more than 1 starter and 6 project picks. It is unreal to me that you could have soooo many needs at so many positions and fill zero of them. Calvin Johnson will be a great player, however wide receiver was not a need position.

Maybe Mr. Ford will die before me and Mark Cuban, or someone who cares, will buy the team and make it a winner. I really like Marinelli, but you cannot win without talent.

By: Steve

Steve — Wed, 02 May 2007 19:42:55 +0000

Harry–Good points. Sarge likes those hard workers and Millen has obviously had his fill of underachievers. My primary quibble is that they desperately need players who can contribute now, iregardless of work ethic and how high of a ceiling that a particular player may possess. Talent is still essential–Johnson should be a Pro Bowler in Martz’s offense. I just wonder if there will be enough balls to go around, Roy Williams may end up not being particularly happy.

By: Harry Sanders

Harry Sanders — Wed, 02 May 2007 16:05:28 +0000

I’m still trying to keep hope, but not very encouraged by the picks after Johnson. Most of the late picks I never heard of, don’t seem to step up and contribute much(Swancutt, Tucker…)

But I read this in Kowalski’s latest blog entry, and it either gives me hope that their scouting is NOW at least as good as the rest of the league:

Millen said, for the first time since he’s been in Detroit, it was like the rest of the league was picking off their board. The Lions felt they couldn’t afford to wait.

By: Hondo

Hondo — Mon, 30 Apr 2007 20:21:57 +0000

Wow Blogman, it is apparent that you aren’t too thrilled. You hear all the time about someone kills themselves by erotic asphyxiation while wearing something they wouldn’t be caught dead in public with. It’s tragic, but you just can’t help but laugh. This is the same thing.

This season is lost. It’s off the books. Every year since I was a lad, I predicted the Lions would win it all. This is different. This team will be lucky to go 3-13. My week one prediction? Oakland 42, Detroit 17.

For the sake of the younger readers of this blog I will stop commenting now.

By: University Update

University Update — Mon, 30 Apr 2007 20:08:35 +0000

Millen’s Worst Draft Yet as Team President?…

…