Detroit Lions Weblog

Peering Into a Murky Crystal Ball, Week 13 Preview

(The setting is a church confessional booth, soft chanting is heard in the background, the soft smell of burning candles and incense hangs in the air) 

Me:”Father, I have to share a mea culpa” 

Padre “Yes, My Son, tell me more…(with salacious anticipation)”

Me:”Father, I rooted for “Scruffy McFavre” and those awful Packers last night against the Cowboys, am I doomed to hell?”

Padre:” Your penance will be heavy, but I suggest you say seventeen Jon Kitna Hail Mary’s in the meantime….”

Silliness aside, rooting for the Packers is a clear sign of, what has now become an annual occurrence, the shifting of allegiances that occurs for most Lions fans as they grow to accept the fate of another failed, disappointing Lions season.  

As a coping mechanism, adapting your expectations for this football team is probably healthy.   This season, even after three straight losses, giving up on the Lions may still be a little premature.  They are still a wild card team, after all.  That being said, the Lions are in deep trouble at this point, and a road loss in Minnesota will likely be the final straw in their continuing off-the-rails-until-the-end-of-the-season demise.

It seems that many observers, like the Freep and MLive.com have already begun to reset their expectations, both are beginning to speculate about what the Lions may do at QB next season.  Again, not unreasonable, but the question that needs to be addressed ultimately is:Regardless of who the Lions may chase at QB, even if it means benching Kitna in ‘08, will it really matter if they don’t improve their offensive line play?

My good friend Whitey, posed an excellent question to me recently.   His question was this: After 11 games, given Joe Thomas’ stellar performance, What would the Lions have to package along with Calvin Johnson, in order to acquire Thomas from the Browns?

Obviously, the Browns would not part with Thomas, but supposing that they would, what would a franchise left tackle cost the Lions, in order to protect Kitna, Drew Stanton, Dan Orlovsky, Derek Anderson, Kurt Warner, or Gary Danielson, whomever it may be entering next season.  It will cost a lot, unless, Mr. 30-77, along with his scouting and talent evaluation staff, is able to do a better job in the ‘08 draft.

In my eyes, this is what they should do:

1)Investigate the availability of Jets MLB Jonathan Vilma

2)Trade WR Roy Williams to a contender, his contract will expire in ‘09, and it will likely be costly.  The Lions need desperately to add players and draft picks entering ‘08.

3)Stop the practice of patching together a veteran, journeymen offensive line during the offseason, placing a real primacy upon developing a legitimate, talented offensive line.

4)Find an honest-to-goodness, game-changing edge pass rusher, Kalimbared EdwardeVries just doesn’t cut it. 

In regards to this week’s game against the Vikings.   The Lions have not won in Minnesota for a very long time.   Still, it is difficult for me to wrap my head around the concept of a Tavaris Jackson-helmed Vikings offense, admittedly fueled by the lethal running back combo of Adrian Peterson and Chester Taylor, actually being able to defeat Jon Kitna, if he isn’t on his back the entire day, and if Kitna is able to limit his turnovers.

In spite of their recent horrible stretch of play, the Lions are a better team than the Vikings.   Unfortunately, with a touch of inborn Lions fatalism, I just can’t expect them to play well enough, in a hostile Metrodome environment, with the Vikings on a two game roll, to salvage a victory.  In which case, the Lions free fall will likely find no bottom  this season, and their embarassingly awful stumble to the finish line will put the futures of Marinelli and Martz in Detroit under some reasonable, considerable doubt.

Vikings 24 Lions 17

Lions Need to Improve Their Scouting and Evaluation Processes

“Killer” Kowalski, guru of all things Lion, has written another excellent article about how the poor job that is being done by “Mr. 30-77″, Matt Millen, in scouting, talent evaluation, and drafting, has really hurt the Lions, meanwhile the job that is being done by Packers GM Ted Thompson, has really helped them to become Super Bowl contenders.

The Packers started seven players who were drafted in the 4th round or later against the Lions on Thanksgiving.   The Lions started zero, unless you count Jonathan Scott, who started two games because George Foster was SO bad.   The Packers have two seventh round draft picks (Scott Wells and Mark Tauscher) starting on their O-Line and a fifth-rounder (Aaron Kampman) and a sixth-rounder(Corey Williams) starting on their D-line.

The Lions ongoing problems with scouting, talent evaluation, and drafting has hurt them perennially, but it has been particularly bad under Matt Millen’s watch.   As time progresses, the situation seems to compound itself, rather than improve.

All NFL teams weather injuries, especially season-ending ones, but only the good teams are able to plug in players who can provide legitimate help, and not damage the team’s immediate chances for winning.   During Matt Millen’s interminable rebuilding process, even if the team is performing better this season, it seems that depth has been a constant liability.

It stands as a true indictment of how bad Millen has been, that while the Lions are on the cusp of contending for the playoffs at 6-2, that his house of cards had began crumbling, again.   Until the talent evaluation processes are altered in the front office, the Lions will continue to find themselves in deep trouble organizationally and on the field as well.

The Lions will be at an impasse if they fall out of playoff contention during the next five weeks.   How can Millen seriously ask for more from the coaching staff, given all of the errors that he has made.   If Coach Mike Martz is thrown under the bus, which appears likely, how can Milllen continue to be entrusted with the Lions future.

I guess, the more things change, the more they stay the same, especially as it concerns the Detroit Lions and their 50 plus year championship-less drought. 

CB Wilson, Jr and WR Ellis Are Out for the Season

The Lions re-signed “Mr. Irrelevant”, CB Ramzee Robinson, to replace Stanley Wilson, Jr., who was placed upon the injured reserve list.   Robinson will likely contribute on special teams, but the secondary, already a weak spot for the team, will have some serious depth issues without Wilson, Jr.  If they suffer anymore losses in the secondary, dare I say it, considering how bad they have been, they will really be hurting.

Devale Ellis will remain on the PUP list and is also lost for the season.   Ellis’ absence really doesn’t affect much, he likely would have been released had he been activated by the Lions.   The Lions will be able to give Ellis another look during training camp next year, which given his knowledge of the offense, gives him a slight chance to make the roster in 2008.

The attrition likely will continue to mount as the season progresses, especially if the Lions season continues down it’s current path.

A Familiar Stench Coming From Allen Park?

Assuming that things will continue on their current course this week for the Lions, I have a bad feeling about this weekend’s game in Minnesota. 

First, the rumors that the W.C. “Water Closet” Ford’s may have forced the Lions coaching staff to adjust their offensive focus so that their passing game featured more plays designed for Calvin Johnson on Thanksgiving, absolutely reeks of what has become an organizational trademark, meddling by the ownership.

If the coaching staff actually yielded to the Ford’s wishes, then the season has been lost already.   For all of the talk that Marinelli has given to stressing character, fundamentals, and adapting from a losing culture, this would be as clear of a sign as any, that you can dress up a pig, put a little make-up on it, and in the end, no matter how hard you try, you’ll still have an excellent omelet. (Wait that’s not exactly the adage that applies….)

The news that Jonathan Foster has been placed upon the injured reserve list also brought some bad news for Lions fans.   Only the Lions would attempt to re-shape a patchwork offensive line unit, by shifting a benched player into an unnatural position(aka Damien Woody), meanwhile benching the player who formerly held the position(aka George “It’s On Two?” Foster).

Matt Millen, if you are listening, please jettison George Foster’s useless ass, now.  Scour the league’s practice squads, sign a young prospect offensive tackle and a free agent journeymen veteran(check, Barry Stokes) who has played for either Martz, Marinelli, or Jim Colletto in the past.  Use the journeymen to plug the gaping hole on the right side, and develop the practice squad player for the future. 

Most important of all, please address the Lions offensive line, utilizing resources other than duct tape, rubber bands, and some imported psychedelics, this upcoming offseason.

Lions Can Breathe a Brief, Deep Sigh of Relief

The Lions, amid a miserable three game losing streak, were bestowed with an early Christmas gift from their NFC cohorts this Sunday.   Anyone who predicted that Philly, Arizona, Washington, and the Giants would all lose their games this weekend, allowing the Lions to retain their tenuous grip on playoff contention alive, isn’t likely a fatalist Lions fan.

The Lions need to view next week’s game against the Vikings, in Minnesota, as their Super Bowl.  With the Vikings and Bears beginning to breathe down their necks, at only one game out apiece, the Lions can separate themselves from their divisional rivals and slow their three game free fall with a difficult road victory this weekend.

There is so much to sort for the Lions this week, especially their offense.   Reportedly, they are about to make a roster move to bring in OL Barry Stokes, in lieu of Jonathan Scott’s injury, and both Blaine Saipia and George Foster’s general ineptitude, in hopes of shoring up their terrible offensive line.  

Mike Martz and the offensive position coaches need to determine what has gone wrong with their scheme.   Their offense has been terrible and leaves way too many points on the playing field.   If their playoff hopes are going to continue, something needs to change or be fixed.  They will not make the playoffs if the status quo is preserved.

I hate to keep beating a long-buried dead horse, but I would be remiss if I didn’t mention that the Browns are in the thick of AFC playoff contention largely due to rookie LT Joe Thomas.   Thomas has yet to allow a sack and QB Derek Anderson has become a potential pro bowl candidate due to the presence of Thomas and Eric Steinbach on their left side. 

According to the Pro Football Weekly’s “The Way We Hear It” column, the Lions will be in the market for a RT next season. I agree that the Lions will need to make upgrades along their offensive front next season, but I disagree that a right tackle will solve their problems.

In spite of Jeff Backus’ impeccable record of making consecutive starts, I believe that he should become the Lions ‘08 RT and that they should actually be in the market for a franchise LT.   The Lions have settled for too little far too often along their offensive line, and Jon Kitna, if he is to remain the Lions Starting QB, isn’t getting any younger, either.

By the way, if I were awarded a do-over on the selection of WR Calvin Johnson, drafting Joe Thomas instead, I would also like for the Lions to have two of my favorite up-and-coming players added to their roster: Wes Welker and Marion Barber, III.   Both Welker and Barber have the necessary grit and natural football instincts to add significantly to the Lions offense and also appeal to Coach Rod Marinelli with their intangibles.

The Silver Lining

Pro Football Weekly has recently posted it’s scouting report for a few of the top offensive linemen who should hopefully be available in the 2008 NFL draft.  The silver lining is, if the Lions play their cards right, they unfortunately won’t likely be involved in the Jake Long sweepstakes, but they will likely be firmly entrenched in a draft position where they could consider selecting Jeff Otah, Gosder Cherilus, or even a dark horse like Michael Oher, the protagonist of a fascinating book by Michael Lewis, entitled “The Blind Side”.

Jon Kitna knows that the Lions need help along their offensive front, and Lions fans unfortunately are also quite aware of that reality.  But the true wild card remains, the Lions front office. 

As the Lions 2007 season continues to fade, the entire organization needs to take a honest look at it self, warts and all, and figure out what were the missing pieces that will likely keep them from making the playoffs, when it once appeared so obvious that they would.

Well, I Guess Things Are Much Clearer Now…

The Lions are amazing.  Has any team ever so completely blown playoff contention this rapidly in the history of the NFL?  Not only only are they amidst an awful three game losing streak, after a promising 6-2 start, but four of their five losses are against teams who are mired deeply in the NFC wild card race with them, giving each of these teams a tie-breaker advantage by virtue of their victories over the Lions, whose playoff insignificance is growing by-the-minute.

Let’s assess the Lions, at least where they stand at this point at 6-5, because as we all know, it’s quite likely to get MUCH worse from here.  Jon Kitna, is as tough as nails, and a strong leader, but he is clearly just an average NFL QB.   The Lions are in serious trouble without him, but he is not much of a difference-maker for them, either.  

The Lions offensive line can’t provide Kitna with the protection necessary for him to even to be able to play at his natural level of ability, since he is under near constant duress.  Kitna, who had an awful game today, and his highly-touted receivers, who were either invisible(Roy Williams), or plagued by rookie errors(Calvin Johnson), admittedly constitute one of the most overrated offensive personnel groups in recent NFL history.

The Lions have a “franchise” left tackle(Jeff Backus) who may not miss any starts, but is well on pace for allowing 20 sacks this season.   The Lions “franchise” DT(Cory Redding), the highest paid player at his position in the league, and a team captain, has not produced a single sack for the Lions defense this season.

The consensus top player in the 2007 draft(Johnson), who was selected second overall, rarely sees the field throughout most of the season, and subsequently gets thrust into being the team’s primary receiving option during, at least up to this point, it’s biggest game of the season. Worst of all, he flubs his opportunity when everyone has been demanding he assume a more integral role in the offense for weeks.

As much as the Dre Bly for George Foster and Tatum Bell trade stinks and has hurt the Lions this year, Mr. 30-77 may have really outdone himself with the 2007 draft.  He drafted a wide receiver, when it was abundantly clear that the team had larger needs on the offensive line(Joe Thomas) and throughout their entire defense(DE, LB, CB).

He selected a QB in Drew Stanton in the second round, who was clearly a project, and likely could have been selected much later, rather than trading up to get OT Tony Ugoh, who has done a fine job replacing Tarik Glenn for the Colts. Another second-rounder, Ikaika Alama-Francis hasn’t played at all during the entire regular season.  A fourth-rounder, A.J. Davis, was eventually released, meanwhile the Bucs took S Tanard Jackson, selected one pick after Davis, who is a contender for defensive rookie of the year.

I digress, unfortunately I think that this team’s luck may have run out in 2007.    In my eyes, Dallas and Green Bay(at Lambeau) are clear losses.  In the remaining three games, San Diego and Minnesota are each on the road, and Kansas City is at home, the Lions might be able to win each of them, but if they play at the same level as they have in recent games, they will be lucky to win even one.

Rod Marinelli’s plan for this team is starting to reveal some of it’s first structural weakness, and it is critical that he find a way to reinforce some of the things that lead to this team becoming 6-2, or he may eventually lose them completely.    The Lions losing culture may provide the soft fall necessary for this flagging team.  As much as Marinelli has tried to root it out, it remains the elephant in the room.

Worst of all, we had to endure 45 relentless minutes of pure Brett Favre idol worship from the Fox broadcast booth, especially when the game was clearly unraveling for the Lions.   The last 15 minutes would have been pure hell, had the Packers not dropped into soft zone coverage and allowed the Lions, at least figuratively, back into the game.   In the end, the Packers were just toying with the sad-sack Lions and Brett Favre got to take home the coveted Fox “Galloping Gobbler”. Meanwhile, the Lions remained the biggest Thanksgiving turkeys of them all.

Week 12 Preview: Lions Vs. Packers

The annual Lions Thanksgiving Day game has been of tantamount importance to most Lions fans, in spite of all of this organization’s many failings, since the game has been the one of the few significant things about the franchise that can be regarded as a legitimate source of pride.

Bob Carroll, a pre-eminent football historian, wrote about history of the Lions Thanksgiving Day game several years ago for the Pro Football Researchers Association. The game, which began 73 years ago, may have actually saved the franchise, given it’s relative lack of popularity when compared to the hometown Detroit Tigers baseball club at that time.

That being said, during recent seasons, despite their national prominence for this one game, the Lions have been awful.   It has become so bad that I am not totally opposed to the NFL revoking the Lions Thanksgiving game privilege, if the organization doesn’t place a stronger impetus upon improving it’s current sad state.   The Ford’s are big time advertisers for the NFL’s television broadcasts, so this would be an incredibly bold move by the league office(but it in the past the NFL didn’t possess it’s own media platform(The NFL Network) in which it can exert stronger control over which games are broadcast, either).

The Lions do appear to be improving, at least on the surface level, but it remains to be seen if any deep, qualitative changes, or a paradigm shift, if you will, have actually occurred. Sunday’s game may be the first strong indicator that we will have, either way, of the future course of this franchise.

Offensively, the Lions are reeling.   In order for them to have any serious chance against the Packers, the Lions offense needs to make a faster-than-the-speed-of-light turnaround, during a short week of preparation. 

Mlive.com’s “Killer” Kowalski has suggested that the Lions offense has suffered from a crisis of identity.   They need to embrace who they are, a pass first offense, and consider their ground attack as an additional weapon within their arsenal.  It may be too much to ask that the Lions attempt to maintain a balanced offense.

Facing the Packers, it will be helpful to be able to run the ball successfully, but in order to do so the Lions will have to attack the Packers secondary and develop a rhythm in their passing game.  In order to so, the Lions will likely need to utilize more three and four wide receiver situations in hopes of creating some mismatches for their receivers against the Packers secondary.

The Packers have a very good defense, which will provide the Lions with a stiff challenge.  The Lions will have OT Jonathan Scott back to replace the embattled George Foster.   Hopefully, Scott’s return can make an impact against Aaron Kampman, because Jeff Backus will likely have his hands full with Cullen Jenkins and Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila. 

Defensively, the Lions are going to have to continue to play as well as they have in recent games.  Hopefully, they will continue to generate turnovers.   Packers QB Brett Favre is having an incredible season, and the Lions will need to take advantage of any mistakes that he makes. 

One way to force some errors from Favre would be to pressure him enough to force him to make ill-advised throws moving out of the pocket.   Another way to alter Favre’s game is to force him to play from behind, rather than with the lead.   The Lions defense can’t afford to let him to get comfortable, or he will make them pay.

Other than bombs to Greg Jennings and James Jones, I am most concerned that the Packers will use TE Donald Lee to attack the deep middle of the Lions zone coverage.   Lee has become a major playmaker this season.

As an eight year old, I remember vividly the Lions Thanksgiving Day loss to the Bears where Dave Williams ripped my little heart out with a 100-yard kickoff return in overtime.  My biggest fear is that I’ll have to re-visit that same misery tomorrow afternoon in what constitutes a hugely important game against a divisional rival.

Packers 31 Lions 21

3rd Down Success Crucial for the Lions on Both Sides of the Ball

A common refrain around here has been the Lions continued terrible performance on both offense and defense in third down situations.  Pro Football Weekly’s recent  “The Way We Hear It” column highlights the relative ineffectiveness of the Lions offense on third downs.

“The Way We Hear It” attributes the Lions offensive struggles to an inconsistent ground game which leads to a lot of third and long yardage situations.   I agree, but with this caveat, their inability to resolve a clear role for each running back is at least as responsible. 

Aveion Cason is not an effective third down back, but Tatum Bell’s inability (or unwillingness) to help on special teams has forced Bell off of the field.  T.J. Duckett is not suited for this role and the team chose not to re-sign Shawn Bryson, which was mentioned as a possibility at the time of his release.  This very situation may be where the season ending injury to Brian Calhoun has hurt the team the most.

The design of the Lions zone defense also allows for a certain amount of success on third downs, since the defensive is predicated upon a incessant, productive pass rush, which if unsuccesful, opens the opportunity for Lions opponents to extend their drives. As the time of possession mounts the Lions struggle even more to get off of the field.

The Lions do have excellent weapons in Calvin Johnson, Shaun McDonald, and Mike Furrey to attack opposing defenses with on 3rd downs.  The Lions offenive line has not done a good enough job buying Jon Kitna the time necessary to find his targets in these situations.

In order to stand a chance in games against the league’s better teams, like the Packers, the Lions need to win in more of these crucial game situations, especially if they intend on keeping Brett Favre from lighting them up on Thursday.

Standing At the Crossroads

During the lead up time to recent Thanksgiving games for the Lions, they have usually been in a position where they have been completely eliminated from playoff contention, and are usually stuck gripping for any meager shred of positivity or moral victory that can distinguish their routinely embarassing season performances.  

The fact is, or what has disappointed me the most with the Lions recent rash of poor performances on Thanksgiving, in what usually constitutes their most high profile game nationally, that they have exhibited little toughness or pride in what this game has meant for this franchise throughout it’s team history.  In fact, they often seem nearly disinterested in playing and have been willing participants in their own dismantling in front of a national audience.

This season will hopefully be much different.  This game has an incredible amount of weight, both for this season and the future.  The inimitable “Killer” Kowalski has an excellent article about why the Lions (and they’re fans) should be thankful to be in their current position facing the Packers on Thursday.   This is put up or shut up time for this organization, though(also see this from AP’s Larry Lage).

The NFL fields a very strange game.   The Lions have no guarantees, ever, as their recent track record has made loud and clear.   There is no future guarantee that they will find themselves back in playoff contention again anytime soon.   After two disappointing back-to-back losses, the Lions need to circle the wagons and recapture whatever intangible that has gone missing in recent games.

The bottom line is that there is no better statement of arrival for this franchise, than to beat the freekin red hot Packers, and their mythically larger-than-life leader, Brett Favre, during a nationally televised game, in front of all of their peers, at home in front of a rabid, packed Ford Field.   There is no better game for the values that Rod Marinelli has been attempting to instill, to blossom and finally yield some fruit.