Astounding Lions Statistics, Roy Williams on IR, MLB prospect Buster Davis Activated
December 19, 2007 on 6:55 pm | In Uncategorized |The Lions, as we all are incredibly aware , have accomplished the improbable in 2007. 146 teams have begun their seasons 6-2, of which 111 have been able to keep things together just enough to garner an eventual playoff spot(76%). The Lions six game losing streak is far from unprecedented, but I think that when the final bell tolls on their 2007 season, the fact that they began 6-2 will be quickly forgotten due to their poor finish.
The Lions have allowed opposing QB’s to complete 70% of their passes this season. Part of this is purely schematic. The Lions version of the Tampa-2 zone allows for teams to have a higher completion percentage, due to their safeties playing deep in an attempt to prevent the long ball. In the Lions case, with their lack of a consistent pass rush, they have been punished severely by opposing offenses.
Earlier in the season, the Lions were the recipients of a desirable schedule, against teams who turned the ball over too much. Since that point, with up an uptick in the quality of their opponents, they have not been the beneficiaries of the high frequency of turnovers and mistakes necessary for them to continue to win.
The reasoning behind playing the Tampa-2 zone is that most teams, lead by poor or inexperienced QB’s, will eventually make costly mistakes which, if you can successfully limit damaging big gains, will in theory lead to victory for the defense. Turnovers are partially the result of the scheme, partially the result of luck, and mostly a direct result of the quality of your opponent.
The Lions have unfortunately not been able to compensate defensively for the higher quality of opponent that they have been playing of late. With a better pass rush, and a little more luck, they may not have lost six straight games.
The Lions placed Roy Williams on the injured reserve today. Odds are better than 50% that Roy Williams has played his last downs as a Lion, especially considering that his value will likely never be higher than during this off season, in a poor wide receiver draft and given that his contract expires after 2008. The salary cap ramifications of keeping Calvin Johnson, Williams, and et al will be strained heavily by Matt Millen likely attempting to fix his other mistakes, er– astute personnel decisions, in releasing players like Kalimba Edwards and Shaun Rogers. The decision to release expensive players likely will exert an influence throughout the Lions entire roster.
If their is an upside to the news of Williams being placed on IR, it is that MLB prospect, and fellow former Seminole with Ernie Sims, Buster Davis, will be placed on the active roster from the practice squad. Davis, who was a ‘07 third round draft pick who was released by the Arizona Cardinals, is worthy of a look, at least. Whether he purely serves a role on special teams, or works his way into the playing mix, remains to be seen.
In regards to Williams and Kevin Jones, and their future contract status, “Killer” Kowalski has written an excellent article about how they, given that they are two of Matt Millen’s best and most productive draft selections, are both worthy of contract extensions. I tend to agree that the Lions should consider keeping them, with the corollary that both are on board with whomever the current coaching staff is, and are clear that they are remaining in Detroit to win, and not just collect a paycheck, likely so MANY of their counterparts have been wont to do.
Williams could possibly fetch the players or draft picks necessary to offset some of Matt Millen’s mistakes. What Millen needs to accomplish, should he decide to trade Williams, and is able to sucessfully, is getting more than pennies on the dollar in exchange for Williams with a weak upcoming wide receiver draft. I realize that this is expecting a lot from Millen, especially considering the outcome of his blockbuster Dre Bly for Tatum Bell, George Foster, and Johnny “WHO?” Baldwin trade this past off season.
4 Comments »
RSS feed for comments on this post. TrackBack URI
Leave a comment
Powered by WordPress with Pool theme design by Borja Fernandez.
Entries and comments feeds.
Valid XHTML and CSS. ^Top^
No please, dont ask Millen to make a trade
There are only two trades I would like to see being made by the Lions:
1- Millen trades Williams for a first-round draft pick.
Atlanta and Miami could probably use an established receiver, but then again these two teams would need an established player at almost every position. Adding a good WR would not make them a better team and Roy Williams wouldn’t be too happy playing there. We know, they know, so they’ll use their high pick to draft a QB.
But there are some teams that could potentially “turn the corner” with the addition of a Pro Bowl wideout. There are some teams that are already competitive, yet lack the “special ingredient” that could bring them in the playoff. One team that quickly comes to mind is the Tennessee Titans.
The Titans have a potent ground game and a solid defense but their aerial attack could be better. Roy Williams would be an upgrade over Eric Moulds or Roydell Williams. The Titans would prefer adding a WR through a trade then draft one since the learning curve would be less abrupt. The franchise is riding on the shoulders of Vince Young. It is therefore mandatory for the Titans to provide him with the right tools to work. In addition, Roy Williams would be very happy to be traded to a team closer to his home.
The Titan’s first-round pick would enable the Lions to get an additional starter on defense. And we all know how important that is!
2- Millen trades Roy Williams to Tampa Bay
That trade would not worry me as much since it would have been masterminded by Marinelli.
Most of the succesfull “personnel addition” the Lions have made were thought-out by Martz or Marinelli. Furrey, McDonald, White, Fisher, Bradley, Mulitalo (through Coletto), Bashir, to name a few, all have connections to Marinelli (Tampa Bay) or Martz (St-Louis).
Tampa Bay needs a premiere wide receiver. They were very interested in drafting Calvin Johnson last April. They had to settle for Gaines Adams. They’re a competitive team that have made the playoffs by relying on a conservative offense and a perfectly executed Tampa-2 defense. Yet I dont think they have the makings of championship team. Their whole offense would benefit from a more reliable deep threath.
By trading with the Bucs, we would have the opportunity to add not only established players, but players who have already been taught the complicated defensive philosophy preached by Joe Barry.
In conclusion, I think the trade with Tennessee would be the most profitable in the long term since the quality of the player would probably be better. You wouldn’t get a former 1st-rounder with the Tampa trade. But the in the short term, the deal with Tampa would make the Lions at immediate contender.
Comment by Simon — December 20, 2007 #
Nice work, Simon. All of your choices make sound sense, which is likely the problem. Millen and sound thinking are anathema.
Williams would reportedly have a preference towards returning to Texas, but given the right circumstances, or a large enough sum of money in a new contract, I expect that he would offer little resistance.
Williams is a much surer thing than any draft pick, but if you put him with the Texans, Cowboys, Titans, Ravens, Jaguars, Carolina, or Tampa–in particular I like your Tampa suggestion since Garcia and Roy have played together in the past–would all immediately benefit from Williams.
I think Miami and Atlanta would be less likely to commit to a player like Williams, since he alone wouldn’t put them over the top.
Dallas is the only team with two first round draft choices I believe, so they might be inclined to part with one. Team Williams, Owens, Witten and Romo and the Cowboys could be a Pats-like juggernaut .
Rest assured though, if the organization decides to move in that direction with Williams, Millen will screw this up, too.
Comment by Steve — December 20, 2007 #
Am i the only one totally disappointed someone like Parcells is out there and willing to run a football org. and we dont go after him? Cause Millen has worked out soooo well.
Comment by Fel — December 21, 2007 #
Fel–excellent point. The Lions have never made a run at Parcells. Their have been rumors and innuendo, but unfortunately the Ford’s have never pulled the trigger on going after him.
I think, sadly, the Lions will ultimately be happy and contented that the ‘07 season, especially with an addition of just one more victory, standing for progress.
In a nutshell, eight seasons without making the playoffs, especially with 07 playoffs within close reach after a 6-2 start, should have been enough to anger the Ford’s. Unfortunately, we will likely be stuck with Millen/Marinelli for at LEAST one more season, ugh!!!
Comment by Steve — December 22, 2007 #