Off Season Changes Are Only the Certainty for the Lions
January 15, 2008 on 2:33 pm | In Uncategorized |Former Houston Texans GM and CBS studio analyst, Charley Casserly, mentioned prior to Saturday’s Jacksonville/New England broadcast that the Lions will be actively shopping Shaun Rogers and Roy Williams for potential trade opportunities throughout the off season. In a nutshell, if Casserly is aware of this situation already, the Lions are going to have a tumultuous off season.
MLive’s Tom “Killer” Kowalski speculates that as many as 20-25 of the Lions 65 players on their season ending roster will be looking for work elsewhere next season. In an article entitled “Marinelli’s Off Season Should Be Busy”, he methodically delineates who he believes will likely return, who is definitely leaving, and who is probably on the roster bubble.
For the most part, I agree with Killer’s designations. Where I deviate from him is:
QB: If they choose to keep Kitna and Orlovsky, and continue to groom Stanton, Matt Millen will be just as grievously negligent as he was entering the ‘07 season. The Lions need another battle-tested, veteran QB, who, given the porous Lions O-Line, will be able to handle being thrust into any game, at any time. I wonder how firm a commitment the Lions will exhibit to Stanton, now that Martz is gone.
RB:Aveion Cason is not listed as a keeper by “Killer”, but as we’ve seen, he is always at the top of Matt Millen’s speed dial, since he has been available to them repeatedly over the course of several seasons. In regards to Jones and Calhoun, given their advanced injury histories, this would also not be a prudent move by Millen, either. I agree with retaining the monstrous FB Jon Bradley, even in a limited role. I also think that T.J. Duckett clearly exhibited that when he is paired with another more versatile type of feature back, that he could work well in the Lions offense. He also proved that he could work in tandem with a more traditional-type of 3rd down back, with Duckett as the featured back, if necessary. I still think that the Lions may need to bring an additional veteran into camp to compete with Calhoun, and compensate for any sort of prolonged recovery time for Jones.
OL: Fundamentally, if the Lions continue to stick with Jeff Backus as their starting LT, they will never improve. Backus is dependable, and incredibly MEDIOCRE!!! The Lions should move him to RT, bid adieu to Damien Woody, and make the selection or acquisition of a LT an immediate priority, especially considering the talent available to them in the ‘08 draft. Hopefully, the Lions will prove to have been able to mine more than just “fool’s gold” among young offensive lineman like Frank Davis, Jonathan Scott and Manny Ramirez. At the very least, one or two of them have to provide depth.
DL:Until the Lions find a legitimate edge rusher, the Tampa-2 defense will continue to struggle. I think that White and Alama-Francis are capable of filling the LDE spot just fine, but they need a Jared Allen-type of pass rusher to play the RDE spot. As frustrating as S. Rogers’ performance has been, their will be a major void in the middle of the Lions defense when he is gone. “Killer” also omits DT Shaun Cody completely, which likely speaks volumes to his future in Detroit, too.
LB:I am comfortable with Paris Lenon sliding over to SLB with Alex Lewis, who needs to take a big step forward this off season, especially if Lenon becomes more of a special teams/backup type of player. The Lions need to find a legitimate MLB who is capable of dropping into the deep middle of their cover-2 in pass coverage, and still provides stout, disciplined run-stopping skills.
DB’s:I am little surprised that Kowalski earmarks Wilson, Jr. as someone who is leaving. Wilson, Jr. is young and athletically-gifted, and deserves a Kalimba Edwards-type mountain of patience to see if he can eventually turn things around, given the high draft pick that was invested in him. Otherwise, I agree that the Lions secondary is deserving of a near-complete overhaul, especially if they can add a dynamic play maker to the mix.
Do Matt Millen, or Rod Marinelli for that matter, appear deserving of being in charge of another complete retooling of the Lions roster, which will ultimately be retooled again, upon Marinelli and Millen’s co-firings? The Lions are not going to just have to make minor moves this off season. By my account, they need:
A veteran QB, a veteran RB, a LT, RDE, NT, MLB, and likely, 2 starting CB’s, besides needing to add additional depth throughout the roster. (8 major players)
Killer’s list is more conservative, and probably more accurate, than mine. That being said, the Lions don’t resemble a team that nearly made the playoffs, especially with this expected turnover.
The Lions should investigate the potential availability of the Jets MLB Jon Vilma, who is returning from a knee injury, and DT DeWayne Robertson, both are not happy in New York’s 3-4 defense. Both players would fill immediate roster needs.
Joe Theismann’s recent assertion that Matt Millen is damaging other former players chances to become in charge of personnel decision-making for other NFL teams, should serve as a clarion call for the Ford’s. The Lions, and their current chief executive, are a joke. Theismann, who is currently unemployed, and is not above self-promotion, may have tangible proof that Millen has hurt former player’s chances.
With stellar football minds like Bill Cowher, Tony Dungy, and Mike Holmgren all potentially available, the Ford’s need to make a difficult, but aggressive decision for once. They need to make a statement to their fans that 31-81, and 51 years with just one playoff victory, have become unacceptable. Otherwise, expect more of the same 2-14/3-13 Lions redux, for the foreseeable future, that we have all grown accustomed to.
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Pingback by NFL » Off Season Changes Are Only the Certainty for the Lions — January 15, 2008 #
BIll Cowher, now your talking!
Comment by RJS — January 15, 2008 #
LIONS OFF SEASON CHANGES;
WHAT TO DO AT THE QB POSITION?
John Kitna may not have been as good as expected, but one must admit that he certainly has brought well-needed stability at the position for the last couple of years. Unfortunately, in this league, stability is not good enough.
QB rating
If there is one stat that doesnt lie, it’s QB rating. In general, the teams that have a good quarterback make the playoffs. Out of the ten best QBs in the NFL (QB rating), 8 of them made the playoffs. Unfortunately for Donovan McNabb and Kurt Warner, their performances wasn’t enough.
Philip Rivers had a mediocre season, but his team made it anyways. Rivers QB rating was similar to Kitna’s.
And out of the 14 quarterbacks that had a worst season than Kitna, only one made the playoffs: Eli Manning.
What does that mean?
Most of the teams that made the playoffs this year were conducted by QBs who had ratings of 90 and higher. Kitna has never had such a rating. NEVER. So why would we believe that he suddenly would be capable of putting such numbers?
Even if he puts together a better season next year, it wouldn’t guarantee a contention. There were nine QBs this year that had better seasons than Kitna, yet there teams didn’t make it to the big show.
Exception to the rule
The San Diego Chargers and New York Giants offense wasn’t much better than the Lions, but their defense was. Those two teams not only made it to the playoff this year, but both are still playing as we speak.
Considering that, I believe that there is hope for the Lions for the 2008 season. If they improve their defense this off-season, I believe that the Lions have a chance of making the playoffs. Even with Kitna at the helms.
The defense must be better and they must rely on the running game much more than in the past. Although the Giants and the Chargers offense wasn’t much better than the Lions, their rushing offenses were respectively 4th and 7th in the league. With a mediocre QB, you must have a good defense and a good rushing offense in order to make it to the playoff.
Comment by Simon — January 16, 2008 #
TITANS AND LIONS, TRADE IMMINENT
It will be curious to see if Matt Millen can manage a trade with the Titans. The Titans just canned their offensive coordinator, Norm Chow, after finishing 21st overall on offense. The Titans still managed to finish the season with a 10-6 record, due to a dominating defense.
Jeff Fisher has recently admitted to the media that his number one priority this offseason would be to improve the offense.
Roy Williams is rumored to be shopped around by the Lions. The Titans could definitely need help at the wide-receiver position. Williams would certainly be happy to move closer to home (Texas).
A 2008 1st-round pick would be fair, but CB Michael Griffin would be better.
Comment by Simon — January 16, 2008 #
RJS—Cowher probably makes TOO MUCH sense. Millen was supposed to be a Cowher-like figure, but all he has really accomplished is giving the appearance that he is grasping at straws when it comes to running a NFL franchise.
Your QB assertion is right on, Simon. Another great indicator is YPP (yards per pass attempt). If you read Allen Barra’s football stats book it explains thoroughly why passer rating and YPP serve as indicators of QB success.
Your assertion also touches on another thing, the decline of quality QB play in the NFL is a trend that accentuates the value of quality QB’s all the more. Tom Brady’s is all the more terrific when you compare his rating to the mean passer rating, etc of the league, because it is so far above league average.
In regards to Kitna, his age, and not his passer rating, is my larger concern. His passer rating would have likely been higher with better pass protection and enough of a running game that they didn’t operate out of so many third and long yardage situations.
In regards to a Titans trade, I’d welcome it. Roy and Vince have to be a little familiar with each other from their Texas days. That being said, I believe that with Tennessee’s quality offensive line, and solid running attack, that the Titans true problem on offense might be Vince Young. He has not progressed enough during his short career.
Williams would provide the Titans with a consistent weapon that they don’t currently possess, though. The Titans likely wouldn’t cough up a first rounder and definitely not Michael Griffin.
That’s the rub, the Lions will not be making the trade of Williams from a bargaining advantage, even if the wide receiver crop in the ‘08 draft is weaker than normal. The Lions need to convince a playoff contender that they will, but don’t have to, trade Williams (and that Williams is the final piece of the puzzle for said contender to make the Super Bowl).
Comment by Steve — January 16, 2008 #