Your QB assertion is right on, Simon. Another great indicator is YPP (yards per pass attempt). If you read Allen Barra’s football stats book it explains thoroughly why passer rating and YPP serve as indicators of QB success.

Your assertion also touches on another thing, the decline of quality QB play in the NFL is a trend that accentuates the value of quality QB’s all the more. Tom Brady’s is all the more terrific when you compare his rating to the mean passer rating, etc of the league, because it is so far above league average.

In regards to Kitna, his age, and not his passer rating, is my larger concern. His passer rating would have likely been higher with better pass protection and enough of a running game that they didn’t operate out of so many third and long yardage situations.

In regards to a Titans trade, I’d welcome it. Roy and Vince have to be a little familiar with each other from their Texas days. That being said, I believe that with Tennessee’s quality offensive line, and solid running attack, that the Titans true problem on offense might be Vince Young. He has not progressed enough during his short career.

Williams would provide the Titans with a consistent weapon that they don’t currently possess, though. The Titans likely wouldn’t cough up a first rounder and definitely not Michael Griffin.

That’s the rub, the Lions will not be making the trade of Williams from a bargaining advantage, even if the wide receiver crop in the ‘08 draft is weaker than normal. The Lions need to convince a playoff contender that they will, but don’t have to, trade Williams (and that Williams is the final piece of the puzzle for said contender to make the Super Bowl).

It will be curious to see if Matt Millen can manage a trade with the Titans. The Titans just canned their offensive coordinator, Norm Chow, after finishing 21st overall on offense. The Titans still managed to finish the season with a 10-6 record, due to a dominating defense.

Jeff Fisher has recently admitted to the media that his number one priority this offseason would be to improve the offense.

Roy Williams is rumored to be shopped around by the Lions. The Titans could definitely need help at the wide-receiver position. Williams would certainly be happy to move closer to home (Texas).

A 2008 1st-round pick would be fair, but CB Michael Griffin would be better.

John Kitna may not have been as good as expected, but one must admit that he certainly has brought well-needed stability at the position for the last couple of years. Unfortunately, in this league, stability is not good enough.

QB rating

If there is one stat that doesnt lie, it’s QB rating. In general, the teams that have a good quarterback make the playoffs. Out of the ten best QBs in the NFL (QB rating), 8 of them made the playoffs. Unfortunately for Donovan McNabb and Kurt Warner, their performances wasn’t enough.

Philip Rivers had a mediocre season, but his team made it anyways. Rivers QB rating was similar to Kitna’s.

And out of the 14 quarterbacks that had a worst season than Kitna, only one made the playoffs: Eli Manning.

What does that mean?

Most of the teams that made the playoffs this year were conducted by QBs who had ratings of 90 and higher. Kitna has never had such a rating. NEVER. So why would we believe that he suddenly would be capable of putting such numbers?

Even if he puts together a better season next year, it wouldn’t guarantee a contention. There were nine QBs this year that had better seasons than Kitna, yet there teams didn’t make it to the big show.

Exception to the rule

The San Diego Chargers and New York Giants offense wasn’t much better than the Lions, but their defense was. Those two teams not only made it to the playoff this year, but both are still playing as we speak.

Considering that, I believe that there is hope for the Lions for the 2008 season. If they improve their defense this off-season, I believe that the Lions have a chance of making the playoffs. Even with Kitna at the helms.

The defense must be better and they must rely on the running game much more than in the past. Although the Giants and the Chargers offense wasn’t much better than the Lions, their rushing offenses were respectively 4th and 7th in the league. With a mediocre QB, you must have a good defense and a good rushing offense in order to make it to the playoff.