Detroit Lions Weblog

Lions ‘08 Draft Adds to Skepticism About Upcoming Campaign

The selection of OT Gosder Cherilus by the Lions in the first round of their 2008 draft should come as no surprise to Lions observers. Cherilus fills a major need position, and the Lions didn’t disguise their interest in Cherilus (or players like Jordan Dizon and Kevin Smith for that matter) entering the draft.

The clamorous hue and cry in the local media about Cherilus, and his being a “reach” pick, is not a surprise. The Lions track record of blowing first round draft picks out of necessity should coerce a reflexive sense of consternation and skepticism among both observers and fans.

Add the fact that the Lions chose WR Calvin Johnson over players like Joe Thomas and Adrian Peterson, both ‘07 Pro Bowlers, who play at need positions entering this draft, fuels that doubt significantly. Who wouldn’t choose Joe Thomas over Calvin Johnson at this point?

Had they selected Thomas in ‘07, re-upping Roy Williams and adding RB Rashard Mendenhall in the draft would have made infinitely more sense. Instead, the Lions had to take a safer, more pragmatic approach to their ‘08 draft by addressing their glaring needs, at a time when fan patience may be at an all-time low with the organization.

The Lions are no closer to being legitimate playoff contenders today, than they were when Matt Millen was hired as Team President seven seasons ago. That being said, I fully support this draft, and if their picks from the first three rounds all pan out(or nearly?), this draft will constitute a major step in the right direction for the organization.

The 900 lb elephant in the room remains that a consistent pass rusher still needs to be found. Many observers believed that Lions DE Cliff Avril, taken with pick #92, was more of a 3-4 OLB who could occasionally play with his hand down, rather than an undersized edge-rushing specialist at defensive end(which was coincidentally, the pre-draft determination that scouts made about Kalimba “The Ghost” Edwards when the Lions selected him).

If Avril fails, and Ikaika Alama-Francis doesn’t improve his production significantly, the Lions defense will remain very vulnerable. The Lions absolutely need to develop a disruptive pass rush, the Tampa-2 is fundamentally dependent upon it.

The Lions front office, and by proxy the fans, will have to remain faithful to Head Coach Rod Marinelli, and his ability to find productive players, when assessing the ‘08 draft. All of these players have been acknowledged as possessors of high character, a Marinelli maxim, and should provide a solid organizational base to build upon.

If you doubt Marinelli, and refuse to subscribe to his emphasis on the pre-eminence of “football” character and desire, then this draft has amounted to a major disappointment. Considering how bad the Lions have been in recent seasons, who can blame anyone for second guessing most of these picks.

In some quarters, a hypothesis could be tendered that if the Lions fail this season, which many believe is a near certainty, that Matt Millen has conveniently positioned himself so that he can eventually blame the failure of the ‘08 draft on Marinelli, who eventually would serve as a convenient “fall guy” for the organization after the season.

At this point, I will remain upbeat about the first three rounds of this year’s draft, but only with this caveat, I truly believe that the Lions should have traded Roy Williams for a first round draft pick. Williams will have no higher value to other organizations than he would have had in trade during this draft.

I also believe that they should have strategically packaged their draft picks sooner, so that they could have eventually moved up to take DE Derrick Harvey, rather than twice swapping picks to move up in the third round. I think that the Lions desperately needed to add two first round quality players with this draft, which obviously, they failed to do.

Draft:

1. pick #17 OT Gosder Cherilus Boston College
Cherilus will be a mauling, aggressive right tackle, who may be able to move to the left side in an emergency. Likely spells the end of George Foster or Jonathan Scott being on the roster in ‘08.

2. pick#45 MLB Jordan Dizon Colorado
Dizon finished second in the Butkus award voting and should be a solid fit in the Tampa-2. In college, Dizon was a tackling machine, albeit an undersized one. In the NFL, he will be quick enough to fill his gap responsibility, but may be too small to deal with the contact of NFL guards. If Dizon becomes a special teamer, rather than developing into a solid run stopper who can drop and cover the vulnerable area in the middle of the Tampa-2 zone, Rod Marinelli’s days will be numbered. Dizon has to be a first season upgrade over Paris Lenon.

3. pick #64 RB Kevin Smith Central Florida
Smith’s performance in college, even if it was against lesser competition at Central Florida, should indicate that he will be a solid, if unspectacular NFL contributor. He will split carries with Tatum Bell and won’t likely ever be a workhorse, featured back.

3. pick #87 DT Andre Fluellen Florida State
Fluellen is a high-potential, low performance type of player who will either flourish, or not make it out of training camp. He is a quicker, undersized player who needs to be an immediate contributor, even if it is as a role player in the defensive line rotation.

3. pick# 92 DE Cliff Avril Purdue

Avril is a very important selection for the Lions. He will be tabbed to be their undersized, edge rushing specialist. If Avril doesn’t quickly pick up on the techniques of the position, and possess a true tenacity, he will be another failed pick, like his predecessor, Kalimba “The Ghost” Edwards.

5. pick# 136 WR/RS Kenneth Moore Wake Forest

Moore is more of a possession receiver than a down field threat.  Apparently, the Lions drafted him to compete for kick return duties as well.  He was a productive receiver at Wake Forest, so it would be no surprise if he eventually enters into the slot receiver mix with Mike Furrey and Shaun McDonald at some point.

5. pick #146 FB Jerome Felton Furman

a small college, combo blocking/running back who could eventually be used in short yardage and goal-line situations by the Lions, along with competing for a role as the team’s primary blocking back with FB Jon Bradley and TE/H-Backs Casey FitzSimmons and Sean McHugh.

7. Pick#216 DT Landon Cohen Ohio

Cohen is the Lions most anonymous pick, especially after the exposure S Caleb Campbell received on ESPN after he was drafted.   The Lions are searching for depth on the defensive line, and taking a flyer on a guy that Rod Marinelli likes shouldn’t be a bad thing, if he makes the teams.

7. pick#218 S Caleb Campbell Army

The Lions have taken a surprising amount of heat, as well as Campbell, too, for making this pick.  The Lions envision Campbell moving to OLB and he is likely a long shot to make the roster. If Campbell makes the roster and helps out on special teams, I certainly will not question his release from Army service.

Lions Re-Sign DT Moore, G Peterman, and QB Orlovsky

The Lions have prudently re-signed three players who are familiar with the team’s schemes and it’s organizational standards in DT Langston Moore, G Stephen Peterman, and QB Dan Orlovsky.  None of them are players who are guaranteed roster spots entering the ‘08 season, but, in particular, Peterman and Moore have contributed enough in the past to warrant their returns. Each player provides capable depth, but the Lions will not, or should not, be afraid to upgrade their personnel at these positions in the future.

I have formulated what I believe to be a “best case scenario” mock draft for the Lions, which includes an eventual trade of Roy Williams to the Cowboys for pick #28 in the first round and an additional unnamed pick.  Here it is:

Round 1 pick 15 DE Derrick Harvey/Florida–Harvey miraculously falls to #15, and the Lions fight the urge to select a much needed wide receiver with the pick

Round 1 pick 28 LB Jerod Mayo/Tennesses–Roy Williams cries tears of relief, he has finally received his “golden ticket” out of the Lions organization and the Lions draft a player whom they believe will provide the answer to their middle linebacker needs.

Round 2 pick 45 OT Anthony Collins/Kansas –The Lions have finally committed a high draft pick to an offensive lineman, after years of neglect. 

Round 3 pick 76 RB Tashard Choice/Georgia Tech–Choice is a “cut and run” zone rushing back who is far from flashy, but could provide a nice tandem with speedy Tatum Bell.  One of “Megatron’s” pals joins him in Detroit.

Round 3 pick 87 CB/S Charles Godfrey/Iowa–Godfrey is the kind of hybrid DB that can thrive in the cover-2 system.

Round 4 pick 111 TE Kellen Freeman-Davis/Michigan State–obviously, a “Homer Pick”, Okay, Davis may be a reach here, but he has a world of physical gifts and Matt Millen loves toolsy players.   Davis has also drawn interest as a defensive end, his versatility should help on special teams.

Round 5 pick 144 DT Frank Okam/Texas–The Lions trade one underachieving, athletically-gifted Longhorn defensive linemen in “Big Baby” Rogersand replace him with another, who’s senior performance hurt his draft stock mightily.  That being said, if the ability is still there, and the will can be stoked up a bit, Rod Marinelli might extract some value from this guy.

Round 6 pick 176 G Drew Radovich/USC–Edwin Mulitalo is not young, and Manny Ramirez is still unproven.  Millen is usually infatuated with players from the college football “factories”, as his first seven picks up to this point would indicate.

Round 7 pick 216 DE William Hayes/Winston-Salem State–Hayes is a talented project pick, the Lions desperate need for a pass rush leads them to select this raw talent for Marinelli to mold.

Obviously, a Roy Williams trade is still up in the air, but otherwise, this would constitute one of the better drafts of Matt Millen’s tenure.  It is far from glitzy, but the Lions have desperately needed to solidify their personnel, and with a couple of breaks, a couple of these players would be draft day steals. 

Divining a Path Through the Thick Haze of Mystery and Intrigue

Traditionally, the week leading up to the NFL draft is rife with the kind of subterfuge, misinformation, and Orwellian “doublethink” that rivals anything that any tin foil helmet-wearing, Art Bell-enthusiast could conjure after going three complete days without proper sleep.

The Lions, like the rest of the league, are not immune from being involved in numerous improbable draft day scenarios. The sport’s chief talking heads, in the media, are ritually enlisted (kind of like Warren Beatty in the “Parallax View”) to be the primary outlets of much of this bogus league intel.

As observers, we all gladly eat from the hands of these outlets, which allows for many of us fans to feel like our own thoughts about team personnel matters aren’t so far afield from those who are really in power to make those difficult decisions. We also are made to feel like we are truly “inside” team personnel decisions, and are privy to info that no one else has received.

In the case of the Lions, there are beginning to be even more reports about a potential Roy Williams draft day trade(otherwise known as the rumors that refused to die!!!), and even more illogically, about the possibility of the Lions trading up to draft Boston College Qb Matt Ryan.

Where there’s smoke, there’s fire, in the case of Williams. As time presses closer, it seems increasingly likely that the Lions may receive an offer that they absolutely can’t refuse, especially given the dearth of legitimate game-changing talent in the ‘08 wide receiver draft class.

Williams has been diplomatic and said all of the right things about the Lions receiver situation, but I believe that ultimately, entering a contract year, he will not be content if he has to share the number of passes that he could potentially receive with the inevitable emergence of Calvin Johnson as the team’s primary receiving option.

That reality, leads me to believe that the Lions are going to extract another first round pick in exchange for Williams, likely to the Cowboys, Redskins, or Eagles, who all want to upset the balance of power within their division. With the Lions dire personnel situation, I believe that there are significantly worse things which could happen to the organization than an eventual trade of Williams.

For instance, trading up in the draft to select Qb Joey Harr-er, I mean QB Matt Ryan. The Lions absolutely should never, ever, select a quarterback in the first round again. If there is anything more guaranteed to fail than the Lions selecting a quarterback in the first round of any draft, in all of the professional sports landscape, I’d like to hear it.

The Lions appear to be facing the unfortunate scenario of having all of the players that they desire falling outside of the range of where they will select in the first and second rounds. DE Derrick Harvey, much like S Michael Huff, LB Derrick Johnson, LB Patrick Willis, and CB Quentin Jammer before him, is as tantalizing of a pick as there is on the draft board to upgrade the Lions defense.

Harvey is not likely going to be there at pick #15, along with players like T’s Ryan Clady and Chris Williams, so the Lions will face a very difficult decision, given their personnel needs.

In the second round, T Gosder Cherilus and LB Jerod Mayo also may not be there for the team, either. The Lions may be compelled to move in the draft to get the players that they truly desire, but in their case, they may want to consider taking the best value, with the maximum number of picks that they have at their disposal rather than sacrifice a pick or two to get the players that they most desire.

Here is my wish list of players I believe that it is reasonable that the Lions may be able to select in the first round:

1. DE Derrick Harvey

2. OT Ryan Clady

3. OG/OT Brandon Albert

4. OT Chris Williams

5. LB Dan Connor

6. OT Jeff Otah

7. DE Phillip Merling

8. DT Kentwan Balmer

9. LB Jerod Mayo

10. OT Gosder Cherilus

11. CB/RS Aquib Talib

You’ll notice, I think that the Lions should avoid skill players and attempt to build a sounder, more salable framework to build their organization upon.  With that in mind, I fully expect for the Lions to pick either Rashard Mendenhall or Jonathan Stewart in the first round, and subsequently TE Dustin Keller in the second round.  Unfettered skepticism still prevails…..

Draft Mania!!!

With a little reticence, obviously, as a Lions fan, I am becoming quite excited about next weekend’s draft, in spite of my previously documented skepticism. It is still fun to speculate about whom the Lions may, err, I mean which wide receiver Matt Millen is going to select next Saturday(I’ve got 50/50 odds on Cal’s DeSean Jackson!).

Mlive.com is absolutely ablaze with Lions draft speculation. “Killer” Kowalski believes that the Lions target remains Derrick Harvey entering the weekend, but he also would not be surprised to see Oregon running back Jonathan Stewart emerge as a potential pick. I will be mighty surprised if Harvey remains at pick #15, and it is well-documented how I feel about the Lions selecting a running back at that spot in the draft, given their vast needs.

Nolan Nawrocki, of Pro Football Weekly, was recently interviewed by Mlive.com, and he believes that the Lions will select a linebacker, and that they may be considering selecting Jerod Mayo, in spite of his widely perceived draft value being significantly lower than pick #15. With that in mind, the Lions have to look at their own draft board, which we are not privy to, and not those of the “experts”.

I hope that Matt Millen can deftly maneuver trading down for Mayo, if the situation arises that Harvey is gone. The Lions could benefit from adding another pick or two. I realize that given Millen’s track record, I may be a little unrealistic in my expectations, but miracles sometimes do occur.

Mlive also tantalizes us with the description of a defensive end who is a small school sleeper candidate to be selected in the later rounds. Winston-Salem State DE William Hayes is a talented unknown who the Lions have a legitimate interest in.  Hopefully, if he is eventually selected by the Lions, he will not be there next Jonathan Taylor, Bill Swancutt, or Kalimba “The Ghost” Edwards.

Kowalski on the Lions First Round Dilemma and Trading Up in the Draft, Gosselin’s Projection

Tom “Killer” Kowalski has written not one, but two excellent features on the Lions and their upcoming draft. Kowalski addresses the dilemma the Lions may face with their first round draft pick .

Kowalski speculates that DE Derrick Harvey, OT Ryan Clady, and OT Chris Williams, all players that the Lions would like to select, will be off of the draft board when the Lions pick at #15. Kowalski also believes that the Lions will bypass selecting a running back. Kowalski believes that the Lions think that they can find a quality running back later in the draft, which leaves the Lions facing a difficult choice, selecting between LB’s Keith Rivers and Jerod Mayo.

The crux of the matter is, do the Lions select a player whom they really like, and seemingly is a better fit for their current defensive system, in Jerod Mayo, or do they pick the player, in Rivers, who is projected as more of a genuine talent, but doesn’t fill their need for a middle linebacker prospect. The other important factor to note in this scenario is that no one has Mayo projected to go that high in the draft, up to this point.

Given Matt Millen’s draft history, I fully expect them to take Rivers, unless Marinelli can convince him to reach for Mayo, much like the Lions did for Drew Stanton, Ikaika Alama-Francis and Gerald Alexander in last year’s draft.

Personally, with all of their current personnel needs, I would unload Roy Williams to the Cowboys for a first rounder, since it is unlikely they will be able to afford to retain him as a free agent after this season. I would also investigate if there would be any takers for their #15 pick, so that the Lions can maximize the number of picks that they have among the top 50 players in the draft.

The problem with moving in the draft according to Kowalski , is that the Lions have both made poor decisions with their picks, and have sacrificed too many picks to move up in the draft during Millen’s tenure. The Lions have needed to stockpile picks, rather than liquidate them, which has magnified Millen’s bumblings significantly.

Dallas Morning News writer, Rick Gosselin, is one of the country’s pre-eminent draft experts. He currently has the Lions selecting Illinois’ Rashard Mendenhall, some thing I view as a mistake.

Mendenhall, much like his alma mater, was something of a one year wonder in ‘07. He played in a spread-option offense, which is an entirely different offense from the one the Lions (and every offense in the NFL, for that matter) are going to feature. He has a history of fumbling problems, and most importantly, the Lions don”t currently have the necessary pieces in place to ensure that Mendenhall could even run effectively in his first season. It is not a prudent decision salary-capwise, to select a running back with a first round pick, either.

I hope that the Lions will see the forest, and not the trees, here. Until they start laying down some organizational building blocks that are not named Aaron Gibson, Stockar McDougle, and Jeff Backus, et al, they can draft Rashard Mendenhall, O.J. Simpson, or  even Jim Brown, and they still will never move forward as organization.

Lions Re-Sign RFA Stanley Wilson, Could The Lions Draft an Edge Rusher in The First Round?

The Lions have decided to retain athletic, but underachieving CB Stanley Wilson. Wilson, along with Keith Smith, and potentially Ramzee Robinson, could really benefit from the mentoring and tutelage of a veteran like Brian Kelly this season.

It is incumbent upon Lions secondary coach Jimmy Lake to extract whatever ability he can from these young players. It would be a big organizational improvement to have some capable pieces in place, so that the Lions don’t have to continue to overspend in free agency for players who amount to little more than a stop-gap solution.

Jerry Jones , draft analyst for the “The Drugstore List”  tells Mlive.com that Derrick Harvey would make an excellent first round draft pick for the Lions, should he remain when they pick. Hopefully, the Lions are fortunate enough to see Harvey sitting there for them. (Now, only if the Lions can trade into the back end of the first round or early second round to select LB Jerod Mayo or “Man Mountain” OT Gosder Cherilus…)

If the Lions can lock a newly-drafted Harvey, along with Ikaika Alama-Francis, into a film room with Rod Marinelli, Lions fans might be able to begin to forget about the miserable disappointment that was Kalimba “The Ghost” Edwards during his too long tenure as the team’s edge rusher.

I want Marinelli to pull out all of the stops. He had better show the young Harvey and Alama-Francis film clips of stalking cheetahs out on the savannah, and the like, (whatever it takes) so that Derrick Harvey might potentially resemble a young Simien Rice down the line.

Hopefully, this doesn’t appear too delusional, but defensive end and offensive tackle would be my highest priority positions entering the upcoming draft, if anybody asked. If the Lions were to fill these positions with players who might contribute immediately, it would be a major positive step forward.

“Dead Money” Weighing Heavy On Lions ‘08 Salary Cap

“Killer” Kowalski is reporting on MLive.com that the Lions have $15.2 million in “dead money” on their current payroll books due to trades, releases, etc. This large amount of money tied up in players who are no longer on their current roster is about $5 million above the league average, and will eat up about 10% of their total cap space.

The Lions have experienced heavy roster turnover and have suffered from an excessive number of draft busts that have ultimately put them into this financial bind. The Lions should be able to sign all of their upcoming draft picks ($700,000 to $1.2 million under their cap), and may explore other options to massage their final cap figures, but they will ultimately be hamstrung by this “dead money”, should they need to add any more players due to injury.

Speaking of the draft, after recently broadcasting brazenly whom the Lions were planning on visiting with prior to the draft, Rod Marinelli and the Lions front office staff have been very quiet as the draft rapidly approaches.

I am encouraged that names like Gosder Cherilus, Jerod Mayo, Jordan Dizon, and Derrick Harvey have been associated with the Lions rather than the flashier names Matt Millen normally has gravitated towards.

Whether this extra “dead money” hampers the Lions ability to consider attempting to trade up into the back end of the first round, remains to be seen.

The Roy Williams trade rumors are dying a very slow death. The Lions claim that they will not trade Williams, but where there is smoke there is always fire. The Lions will demand a lot in any trade for Williams, given the relatively weak class of available wide receivers in the ‘08 draft.

Williams recent comments that he would like to play in Dallas do not help to snuff out these rumors, either.  Williams, never at a loss for words, has mostly taken the high road, but I would like to see him avoid comment for the immediate future.  His value only increases, not decreases, in a situation shrouded with secrecy.

Marking Out a New Approach to Sports, Life

“There must be some way out of here,” said the joker to the thief. “Theres too much confusion, I can’t get no relief. Businessmen, they drink my wine, plow men dig my earth. None of them along the line know what any of it is worth.”–Bob Dylan “All Along the Watchtower”

Unfortunately, I have reached a point where there is certainly TOO MUCH CONFUSION here, and I am going to try and invent my own relief. Bob Dylan’s introductory words to “Watchtower”, which have been referenced often, are as pertinent today as they have ever been, in my eyes.

I am going to attempt to strip the harsh veneer of negativity and anger than has infected my blog in recent months, since the world around us is, in itself, overflowing with so much vitriol and anxious ambivalence.

The Lions are obviously the most poorly managed franchise in all of sports. The Detroit Tigers, who I have recently regarded with unabated hope, are an admittedly, early 0-6 failure that have strutted around the field like a bunch of flatulent, punch-less, and self-entitled fat cats.

At my alma mater, Michigan State, during a time of near interminable war and festering economic turmoil, 4000 students “riot” at an annual party. Most of them wouldn’t choose to walk across the street to protest (or support, for that matter) the aforementioned prolonged disaster of a war, yet they can find the time to irresponsibly gather “en masse” to joyously celebrate their own collective stupidity.

Not only that, but you can wager that had 4000 minority students (any assorted underprivileged groups) gathered in the same uncontrolled manner, as the overflowing crowd of well-heeled undergrads who reveled at “Cedar Fest on Saturday night did, I am certain that bullets would have been fired, not tear gas.

I am talking about a crisis in consciousness, people. I realize that this blog will not save the world, or even the lowly Lions, but it is a time for awareness’ to be altered and perspectives to be changed, in my opinion.

So I am going to be blindly optimistic about the Lions off-season signings and their upcoming draft picks. Hopefully, things will finally take a turn for the better.