Detroit Lions Weblog

Kowalski on the Lions First Round Dilemma and Trading Up in the Draft, Gosselin’s Projection

Tom “Killer” Kowalski has written not one, but two excellent features on the Lions and their upcoming draft. Kowalski addresses the dilemma the Lions may face with their first round draft pick .

Kowalski speculates that DE Derrick Harvey, OT Ryan Clady, and OT Chris Williams, all players that the Lions would like to select, will be off of the draft board when the Lions pick at #15. Kowalski also believes that the Lions will bypass selecting a running back. Kowalski believes that the Lions think that they can find a quality running back later in the draft, which leaves the Lions facing a difficult choice, selecting between LB’s Keith Rivers and Jerod Mayo.

The crux of the matter is, do the Lions select a player whom they really like, and seemingly is a better fit for their current defensive system, in Jerod Mayo, or do they pick the player, in Rivers, who is projected as more of a genuine talent, but doesn’t fill their need for a middle linebacker prospect. The other important factor to note in this scenario is that no one has Mayo projected to go that high in the draft, up to this point.

Given Matt Millen’s draft history, I fully expect them to take Rivers, unless Marinelli can convince him to reach for Mayo, much like the Lions did for Drew Stanton, Ikaika Alama-Francis and Gerald Alexander in last year’s draft.

Personally, with all of their current personnel needs, I would unload Roy Williams to the Cowboys for a first rounder, since it is unlikely they will be able to afford to retain him as a free agent after this season. I would also investigate if there would be any takers for their #15 pick, so that the Lions can maximize the number of picks that they have among the top 50 players in the draft.

The problem with moving in the draft according to Kowalski , is that the Lions have both made poor decisions with their picks, and have sacrificed too many picks to move up in the draft during Millen’s tenure. The Lions have needed to stockpile picks, rather than liquidate them, which has magnified Millen’s bumblings significantly.

Dallas Morning News writer, Rick Gosselin, is one of the country’s pre-eminent draft experts. He currently has the Lions selecting Illinois’ Rashard Mendenhall, some thing I view as a mistake.

Mendenhall, much like his alma mater, was something of a one year wonder in ‘07. He played in a spread-option offense, which is an entirely different offense from the one the Lions (and every offense in the NFL, for that matter) are going to feature. He has a history of fumbling problems, and most importantly, the Lions don”t currently have the necessary pieces in place to ensure that Mendenhall could even run effectively in his first season. It is not a prudent decision salary-capwise, to select a running back with a first round pick, either.

I hope that the Lions will see the forest, and not the trees, here. Until they start laying down some organizational building blocks that are not named Aaron Gibson, Stockar McDougle, and Jeff Backus, et al, they can draft Rashard Mendenhall, O.J. Simpson, or  even Jim Brown, and they still will never move forward as organization.