Detroit Lions Weblog

Bob McGinn Surveys NFL Front Office Execs About QB’s in the ‘09 Draft

Bob McGinn of the Milwaukee-Wisconsin Journal Sentinel recently talked to several front office executives about the general risks involved in drafting QB’s. McGinn also asked them specifically about the QB’s that are available in the upcoming draft.

“It’s a risky business,” said Eric DeCosta, director of player personnel for the Baltimore Ravens. “There is a statistic out there that is a key indicator of (QB’s) success in the NFL is career starts. You want someone with experience.”

Matthew Stafford has started 34 games in college with a .794 winning percentage and has completed 57.1% of his career passes.

Matthew Stafford 2008 highlight reelclick here

“Since the NFL granted admission to underclassmen in 1990, 43 Qb’s have been selected in the first round. Sixteen of the 43, or 37.2%, have been underclassmen. Of the 16, eight could be categorized as busts: Andre Ware (1990), Todd Marinovich (’91), Tommy Maddox (’92), Heath Shuler (’94), Ryan Leaf (’98), Tim Couch (’99), Rex Grossman (’03) and Alex Smith (’05)

Playing devil’s advocate, although Maddox and Grossman were not as successful as their pre-draft billing, calling them busts may be a little excessive(especially with the dearth of quality NFL QB’s). In regards to Alex Smith, he still might have enough time to reverse his future career course, too. Still, a 50% bust rate, out of the 16 underclassmen, is a risky $40 million proposition, for sure.

With those underclassmen, there is no “magic number” for career experience, but it does seem clear that NFL executives would prefer that a junior play another 13-14 games as a college senior, than see them leave school early.

“I’m a huge resume guy,”said A.J. Smith, the San Diego Chargers general manager. “He(Mark Sanchez) is extremely talented and I do think he will be terrific, but I don’t have the (guts) if I was the position to strike with him high. I’ve got to be 51 games, four bowl games, like Philip Rivers.”

Mark Sanchez highlight reelclick here

Atlanta Falcons general manager Thomas Dimitroff says:

“The maturity level is a very big thing in my mind, especially for that position.”

Again, measuring the maturity of a guy in his early 20’s is an inexact science. I certainly wouldn’t want to be left with the responsibility of making that determination, especially when other variables (like arm strength) can so easily cloud your judgment.

Tom Modrak, the Buffalo Bills vice president succinctly sums it up:

“It’s not the great year.” “You can find flies on all these guys. It gets to be a dilemma because there’s certainly a year or two of training. But if the quarterback doesn’t come in by mid-October you’re in trouble with everyone.”

That’s where the rub lies. If the Lions choose to select Matthew Stafford, over either MLB Aaron Curry or OT Jason Smith, the Lions need to commit to two things:

1. Upgrading their offensive line, especially at left tackle.
2. They need to keep Stafford off of the field until he’s absolutely prepared to play, with all of the circumstances lined up properly, despite any criticism, fan discontent, etc. to the contrary, which demands that Stafford play.

If the Lions are unprepared to execute these necessities, then, they sure as hell had better decide to select either Curry or Smith, even if Mel Kiper, Jr. spontaneously combusts with a machine-gun-rapid-fire blast of glossolalia, especially after reading the informed insight of all of these league executives.

Aaron Curry highlight reelclick here

Of course, fingers crossed, the Lions could play matchmaker, and unite the star-crossed lovers, ‘Skins owner Dan Snyder and USC QB Mark Sanchez, and pick the best player available at pick #13, whomever that may be.

Build your shrines. Chant your incantations. Implore the football gods and goddesses to fatefully intervene. OHM-Shambala-Daniel-Sanchez-Trade-Up-Ummagumma-Shangri-La, on HI-EYE!. With much supplication.