Detroit Lions Weblog

Week 8 Preview: Rams Vs. Lions

After the dismal dual performances of both of the Lions backup QB’s, Daunte Culpepper and Drew Stanton, at Lambeau Field two weeks ago, which was truly a nightmare of Detmer-esque proportions, what once was considered an eminently winnable game at home against the St. Louis Rams has become much less so, especially if either of the backups are called upon to start in Matthew Stafford’s place on Sunday.

National Football Post’s Michael Lombardi has this to say about two of the worst teams in the NFL:

Detroit: The Lions need to keep improving their talent base, and drafting a quarterback who appears to be a very good player has started the massive rebuilding process. They’re ahead of the Rams only because they admitted they needed a quarterback, while the Rams kept burying their heads in the sand. This week, the two teams play each other, so we might be able to determine which one is actually farther along.

Another, less well-known, but no less devoted NFL expert, my friend Whitey, had this to say about the Rams/Lions matchup:

Whats your projected score for Lions-Rams?

W/ Stafford: LIONS 31 Rams 27
W/ Stanton: LIONS 20 Rams 31
W/ Culpepper: LIONS 24 Rams 31

I couldn’t help but look at this game backwards. Usually, I like to think ~(about) a teams strong points and go from there. But in this particular case, I think it is fitting to look at which team is the weakest and where(they are the weakest. Which personnel groups are better or worse?). By position, who has the worse team? These are two bad teams hungry for a win. Even if both teams play the perfect game, it doesn’t change the fact that each is terrible. In a relative (and sick and perverse,too!) sense, this could be one of the greatest games of all time. Kind of like watching two awesome division II college teams go at it (or whatever they are called now). Or women’s basketball.

In my view, There are two ways to the view this Sunday’s game, one positive and one negative. As a Lions fan, week 8 (or sooner) is just about the time where we begin to heavily consider the upcoming year’s draft position. In this case, a win Sunday actually hurts the Lions, because it awards the Rams a tie-breaker if each teams ends the 2009 season with the same record.

On the other hand, the Lions need wins. Lots of them. Incrementally, if this franchise is ever truly going to move forward, they need to be able to beat (and beat soundly) teams like the Rams while playing at Ford Field. Consider this, since the halfway point of the 2007 season, the Rams are 5-26 and the Lions are 2-28. Wait, that’s not all. Since the beginning of the 2008 season, the Rams are 2-21 (and losers of 17 straight) and the Lions are 1-21. The Lions, if they are ever going to be truly respectable again, absolutely have to emerge with a victory this Sunday. Are you willing to sacrifice draft position for some moderately, marginal tell-tale signs of success? I am.

The spread for Sunday’s game is 3 1/2 points which indicates that Las Vegas oddsmakers believe that the two teams are nearly even, with the Lions bestowed the honor of giving the Rams three points because of their home field advantage. The other half-point of spread differential likely constitutes the advantage the Lions are viewed to have over the winless Rams. Pondering the minute differences between the quality of the two teams, it is clearly not safe to feel overly confident that the Lions will emerge victorious Sunday.

Even the bookmakers have grown concerned over the high volume of blow out’s in the NFL, according Yahoo’s Dan Wetzel, with the vast competitive disparity posed when legitimate NFL teams play the Lions or Rams week-to-week:

A betting line is fluid though and will correct itself as money pours in for the favorite or underdog. Despite the Rams getting all those points, at home no less, the money kept going to Indy. The line reacted by moving all the way to 14 points at kickoff.

The goal of a sports book is two fold. One is to have enough big spreads that when a few of the underdogs inevitably cover, the house offsets the losses. The second is to have an equal amount of money on each side of the game to limit exposure.

In this case, the money didn’t even out though. The Las Vegas Review Journal reported that in some sports books, 90 percent of the action was on the Colts. The bettors had good reason: Undefeated Indy won 42-6, covering with ease.

The question for the sports books is how big of a spread can you dare to throw out to the bettors. Traditionally double-digit underdogs are relatively rare. Most NFL games are decided by a touchdown or less and often a field goal or less.

Right now gamblers see as many of 10 clubs that are capable of getting drilled each week.(The Lions and Rams are among those 10 teams)

Lions fans will get the opportunity to see would-be potential 2009 first overall draft pick, OT Jason Smith, who has been a marginal contributor for the Rams thus far. Also appearing will be another would-be potential 2009 Lions draft choice, Rams MLB James Laurinaitis, who has performed well in his rookie season, so far.

I hate to summarize the matchup too succinctly, but if Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson are able to play, the Lions should win. More than likely, the Lions will have Stafford and not Johnson, though. Johnson practiced Thursday (10/29), but appears to be a game-time decision at this point.

Defensively, the Lions need to do what every other Rams opponent has likely tried, which is to attempt to contain the damage inflicted by versatile Rams RB Steven Jackson. The Lions will likely consider moving an 8th or 9th player into the box to force the struggling Rams passing attack into being the team’s primary offensive component. The trouble with this plan is that the Lions secondary is incredibly vulnerable (258.5 yds/gm) and the revolving door of ineptitude which constitutes the Lions secondary, a veritable continuity free zone, has swung to players like Kevin Hobbs and DeMarcus Faggins, after the repeated poor performances of DB’s Philip Buchanon and Anthony Henry forced the hands of the Lions defensive coaching staff into making changes.

The Lions can’t allow the likes of WR’s Donnie Avery, Keenan Burton, and TE Randy McMichael to defeat them, especially with costly “explosion” plays, which the Lions have been prone to allowing. The Lions should benefit from the return of players like DeWayne White and Sammie Lee Hill, which means their defensive line could be more productive, although the Rams have only allowed 16 sacks in seven games.

Offensively, the Lions should enjoy facing a Rams defense who allows 385.5 yards in total offense per game(the Lions allow 370.8). Other than DE Leonard Little, FS Oshiomogho Atogwe, and the aforementioned MLB James Laurinaitis, the Rams are very thin on the defensive side of the ball.

The Lions, with the hoped-for-not-too-rusty return of Stafford, may have the best chance for winning Sunday’s game by playing an efficient, time-consuming brand of offense which keeps the Rams defense on the field, and the Lions defense off of it. Given the fact that Calvin Johnson is likely going to be absent, the Lions will likely play a more ball control-oriented, plodding style of offense out of necessity, since every shred of the team’s big play capability is eradicated without Johnson.

Given each team’s defensive ineptitude, the game will likely be high scoring and should end with the score being close. The optimist in me sees the Lions grabbing a 31-24 victory, with the team girding up for a potential, much-needed road victory against the vulnerable Seattle Seahawks.